ACCA-全球经济状况调查：2024年第三季度（英）

GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS SURVEY REPORT: Q3, 2024weakness of the Chinese economy may have weighed on sentiment, as well as fears about the risk of a U.S. recession. The survey was completed before the Chinese authorities announced a pivot to a more aggressive policy stimulus. A sharp decline in confidence in the UK weighed heavily on the index for Western Europe, amid concerns about predicted tax rises in the upcoming Budget.Cost concerns remain elevated, but indicators of corporate stress are still not concerning. The proportion of respondents reporting increased operating costs remains elevated by historical standards in most regions (see Chart 5), suggesting central banks need to proceed quite cautiously with monetary easing, particularly given events in the Middle East. But concerns that customers and/or suppliers could go out of business remain close to historical averages and the proportion of global firms having problems accessing finance has moved lower amid easing global financial conditions (see Charts 7 and 8).The global risks section asked accountants to rank their top three risk priorities. Regulatory change was the top concern for the second quarter running for respondents in financial services, while the economy remained well out in front for those in the corporate sector. Both public sector entities and small and medium-sized practices (SMPs) put cybersecurity as their top priority, and for the first time since the risk survey started, climate change claimed a top three spot, with the public sector placing it third. Another first-ever was Western Europe being the only region to rank talent scarcity as its highest risk priority.GECS survey points to some slowing in global growth in Q3. The global economy has been quite resilient so far in 2024, but the latest survey of accountants points to some easing in growth at the current juncture. On a positive note, the increased policy stimulus should boost the Chinese economy over the coming months and quarters, and the move to rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and many other central banks, will increasingly support global activity. That said, geopolitical risks are very elevated, with the conflict in the Middle East escalating. In addition to potentially weighing on confidence, any further spike in oil prices would clearly be problematic for central banks and consumers. Meanwhile, significant uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. election could increase corporate caution.Executive summary Confidence among global accountants declined in Q3 to its lowest since Q4 2023.CHART 1: GECS global indicators-60-50-40-30-20-100102030 Confidence Index Orders Index Capital Expenditure Index Employment IndexSource: ACCA/IMA (2014–24)IndexQ3 2014Q3 2016Q3 2018Q3 2020Q3 2022Q3 20241 The median is used to calculate the averages.Confidence among accountants and chief financial officers (CFOs) declines. The ACCA and IMA Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) suggests that global confiden