食品饮料行业报告：啤酒H2有望环比改善，大众品积极加大分红力度

䇷࡮⹊ガᣛ઀φ伕૷侤ᯏ| 㺂ѐઞᣛ 2024ᒪ 8 ᴾ 26ᰛ ᐸ൰ᴿ伄䲟θᣋ䍺䴶䉞ង 䈭ࣗᗻ䰻䈱↙ᮽҁ੄Ⲻރ䍙ᶗⅴ䜞࠼ 㺂ѐᣋ䍺䇺㓝 ᕰӄཝᐸ| 㔪ᤷ 㺂ѐะᵢ᛻߫ ᭬ⴎ⛯փ 15476.12 52ઞᴶ儎 22192.45 52ઞᴶք 15463.43 㺂ѐ⴮ሯ᤽ᮦ㺞⧦ 䍺ᯏᶛⓆφ㚐Ⓠθѣ䛤䇷࡮⹊ガᡶ ⹊ガᡶ ࠼᷆ᐾ: 㭗䴠ᱧ SACⲱ䇦㕌ਭ:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com ࠼᷆ᐾ: ᶞ䙮ᮽ SACⲱ䇦㕌ਭ:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com ࠼᷆ᐾ: ᕖᆆڛ SAC ⲱ䇦㕌ਭ:S1340524050001 Email:zhangzijian@cnpsec.com 䘇ᵕ⹊ガᣛ઀ Ʌ঄⏜ச䞈(0291.HK)φ࡟⏜㺞⧦ᢵুθсঀ䬶䠅ૂਫ਼ᡆᵢᴿᵑ⧥∊᭯஺Ɇ - 2024.08.20 伕૷侤ᯏ㺂ѐᣛ઀ δ2 024 .08.19 - 2024 .08 . 25ε ச䞈 H2ᴿᵑ⧥∊᭯஺θཝՍ૷〥ᶷࣖཝ࠼㓘࣑ᓜ z ᣋ䍺㾷⛯ ᵢઞ伕侤ᶵඍ㔝㔣ᇼ䳼ᣡ䵨ঀᒪᣛθ䠃⛯䐕䑠ḽⲺѐ㔟᛻߫ྸсφ ঄⏜ச䞈φ᭬ޛㅜਾ人ᵕθ࡟⏜⮛քӄ人ᵕȾச䞈᭬ޛ25.6ӵݹθੂ∊- 1.43%χެѣ䬶䠅 634.8нਫ਼θੂ∊- 3.39%χਫ਼ԭ 355ݹ/ਫ਼θੂ∊+2.03%χਫ਼ᡆᵢ 1927ݹ/ ਫ਼θੂ∊+0.91%Ⱦ䬶䠅с┇ѱ㾷਍ࡦ儎ะᮦԛ਀ቶ䜞൦॰䴞≪䖹ཐⲺᖧଃȾ24H1ޢਮ⅗儎ẙ਀ԛрச䞈䬶䠅䖹ৱᒪੂᵕᇔ⧦ঋփᮦ໔䮵θ௒࣑Ƚ㘷䴠ૂ㓘⡫ㅿӝ૷䬶䠅ੂ∊໔䮵䎻䗽 20%θṮᗹӝ૷㓥⭕䬶䠅Ӝᇔ⧦ੂ∊↙໔䮵Ⱦⲳ䞈᭬ޛ11.78ӵݹθੂ∊+20.6%θެѣޞളᙝ儎ㄥཝঋ૷᪎㾷Ⲻ䬶䠅䖹ৱᒪੂᵕ໔䮵䎻䗽 50%θ䍗⥤ⲳ䞈ѐࣗ㩛ѐ仓㓜 70%Ⱦքะᮦс人䇗сঀᒪޢਮச䞈䬶䠅ᴿᵑ⧥∊᭯஺θᡆᵢㄥсঀᒪ㔝㔣㔪ᤷ᭯஺䏁ࣵθޞᒪ∑࡟⦽ᴿᵑᨆॽȾ ⠋Ӣச䞈φѐ㔟ㅜਾ↚ࢃ人઀ѣᷘȾ᣼࠼䠅ԭᶛⵁθ2024ᒪрঀᒪᇔ⧦䬶䠅 230.49нਫ਼θੂ∊+0.63%θൽԭ 3491ݹ/ ਫ਼θੂ∊+4.86%θਫ਼ᡆᵢ 1977ݹ/ ਫ਼θੂ∊+1.62%Ⱦঋӂᆙᓜᇔ⧦䬶䠅 134нਫ਼θੂ∊+0.73%θൽԭ 335ݹ/ ਫ਼θੂ∊ 8.00%θਫ਼ᡆᵢ 1723ݹ/ ਫ਼θੂ∊2.70%Ⱦ࠼૷㊱ⵁθѣ儎ẙӝ૷/ Ფ䙐ӝ૷ᇔ⧦㩛᭬ 50.64/23.24ӵݹθ࠼ࡡੂ∊+10.61%/-6.41%Ⱦ㘹㲇ࡦޢਮᆙᓜ䰪㔅㩛ᮦᦤ⌘ࣞ䖹ཝθԛঀᒪᡌޞᒪⲺ㔪ᓜᶛ∊䖹ԭṲૂᡆᵢⲺ᤽ḽᴪѰਾ⨼Ⱦ 㡃ᗍ䞈ѐφQ2␗ᆙ㔅䬶୼ഔⅴᝅ᝵䖹ᕧθਖࣖৱᒪ 6 ᴾੂᵕะᮦ䖹儎θޢਮ⧦䠇⍷ᢵুȾޢਮঋ Q2ᇔ⧦㩛ѐ᭬ޛ/ ᖈ∃߶࡟⏜1.65/0.41ӵݹθੂ∊- 2.61%/- 8.40%Ⱦ24Q2ޢਮ∑࡟⦽Ѱ 60.93%θੂ∊- 11.21pctθ䬶୤䍯⭞⦽Ѱ 27%θੂ∊+1.75pctȾ∑࡟⦽с┇䖹ཐѱഖ㔉ᶺс〱਀ᇪᑣ൰Ქ䜞࠼૷㊱ࣖཝ䍝ᣎᡶ㠪θቚެᱥѣ儎ẙ䞈㊱Ⱦ䬶୤䍯⭞⦽ᨆॽ䖹ཐѱഖ䴶≸⯨䖥θޢਮ᤿৕ݾ㿺ࡈᣋ᭴ռᇔ䱻᭾᷒ж㡢Ⱦདྷ䜄ਚ 2024ᒪрঀᒪ㩛᭬ 1.71ӵݹθੂ∊໔䮵 127.62%θ߶࡟⏜- 940.1нݹθੂ∊ࠅӅ 695.40нݹȾ ᆿӋ伕૷φᐸ൰څᕧ㜂Ქсѱѐ㔅㩛㺞⧦דᰝӤ⵲Ⱦ࠼ѐࣗᶛⵁθѱѐզ䇗ঋ Q2ᇔ⧦ਂփᮦᐜ਩Ⲻ໔䮵Ƚ⎾䍯⯨䖥сᇔኔу᱉θ䬷勒㻻㺞⧦Ӥ⵲Ƚቅ৞ঋ Q2儎䙕໔䮵Ⱦ߱૷ݾ⭕ഖཌ䜞ᐸ൰⧥ູڅᕧզ䇗㺞⧦どᇐȾ᯦ᇅѐȽ᯦ḩՃഖрঀᒪቅ嗏㲴ᐸ൰ԭṲքփȽਖࣖ劲ࢥӝ૷䬶୤с┇ሲ㠪᭬ޛㄥᢵুȾрঀᒪ৕ᶆᯏᡆᵢ㓘࡟ᔬ㔣θ人䇗㔅㩛ᙝ࡟⏜⦽㔪ᤷᒩどȾޢਮѣᵕ࠼㓘㩳൦θᡇԢ人࡚੄㔣㔅㩛᛻߫どڛ䏁ࣵсȽ㜳ᔬ㔣䖹Ѱ〥ᶷⲺഔ侾ᯯṾȾޢਮрঀᒪ〥ᶷ䶘ሯᐸ൰ㄔҿθṮᗹ૷㊱㔪ᤷ儎໔Ƚ✚㛖ㅿ᯦૷ᣘখᐸ൰Գ仓θсঀᒪ㠩᱄ᒪᡆᵢᡌ⮛ᴿ⌘ࣞθռ䍯⭞ㄥᣋޛ᮪։ћṲᣀ᧝Ƚӝ૷ॽ㓝䏁ࣵᑜࣞсθ㔅㩛ᙝ࡟⏜⦽ᴿᵑ㔪ᤷ൞䖹儎≪ᒩȾ -28%-25%-2%-19%-16%-13%-10%-7%-4%-1%2%2023-082023-12024-012024-032024-062024-08伕૷侤ᯏ⋠␧30 䈭ࣗᗻ䰻䈱↙ᮽҁ੄Ⲻރ䍙ᶗⅴ䜞࠼ 2 ࣨԊ伕૷φޢਮപ㔋Ṯᗹ૷㊱ᤷ㔣␧ޛ⹊ਇθቅ劲シ⹪ॷӵ੄ᤷ㔣໔䮵θᗍⴀӄޢਮሯӝ૷䞃ᯯȽਙ᝕ȽڛᓭᓜⲺуᯣ᭯䘑θ᯦૷␧⎭勶劲ᰘ㾵ᆿ䈋⛯੄ᐨ䘑㺂ޞളौ᧞ᒵθⓅᗹ咂咇㴁ҕሼ൞сঀᒪӝ⭕䍗⥤Ⱦ⭧ӄ Q2ᰖ᭵ᓒ㺛ࣟȽ㺞㿸࡟⏜⧥∊䲃䙕Ƚռᢙ䶔߶࡟⏜໔䙕㺞⧦ԃ䖹ѰᕰࣨȾޢਮ᯦ᨆ࠰Ҽঀᒪᓜ࡟⏜࠼䞃人Ṿθখޢਮ 2024ᒪঀᒪᓜਾᒬᖈ∃߶࡟⏜Ⲻ 31.23%θޢਮሼඐᤷᨆ儎࠼㓘仇⅗Ƚ〥ᶷഔ侾ᣋ䍺ӰȾኋᵑ 2024ᒪθཝঋ૷⸟䱫␻ᲦȽ૷⢂ࣵ㜳ᤷ㔣㍥〥θ䬶୤䍯⭞⦽⧥∊੾⧦с㺂䏁ࣵθѐ㔟ᴿᵑؓᤷ儎໔Ⱦ z 0 8 ᴾ 19ᰛ- 0 8 ᴾ 25ᰛ㺂᛻ഔ亴 ᵢઞ伕侤ᶵඍ㺞⧦у֩θ⭩н伕૷侤ᯏ㺂ѐ᤽ᮦδ80120.SLεᵢઞ॰䰪⏞䐂ᑻѰ- 2.81% θ൞ 30Ѡ⭩нж㓝㺂ѐѣփࡍㅢ 16θ䖹⋠␧30᤽ᮦք 2.26% θᖉࢃ㺂ѐࣞᘷ PEѰ 19.2θ༺ӄ়ਨڅքփ㖤Ⱦ ᵢઞ伕侤㺂ѐⲺᆆᶵඍൽс䐂θ䐂ᑻ䖹ቅⲺѰ㚿࡬૷δ- 0.76% εૂ䴬伕δ- 1.54% εȾ ԄѠ㛗䀈ᓜⵁθ伕侤ᶵඍᵢઞ 7 ਠѠ㛗᭬⏞θ14ਠѠ㛗᭬䐂θ⏞ᑻࢃ5࠼ࡡѰ㾵䜞⢝ѐδ+ 17.06% εȽࣖࣖ伕૷δ+ 15.82% εȽ㍡⠋伕૷δ+ 5.24% εȽ䶈⎭ᱛཟδ+ 4.08% εȽਂ≽ਇኋδ+ 1.67% εχ䐂ᑻࢃӊ࠼ࡡѰዟ⸩㛗Գδ- 1 9.41% εȽ⎭঍ὦዑδ- 18.46% εȽ㡃ᗍ䞈ѐδ- 16.03% εȽཟևᗭ䞈δ- 14.09% εȽ૷⑛伕૷δ- 12.59% εȾ z 伄䲟ᨆ⽰φ 伕૷ᆿޞⲺ伄䲟χ㺂ѐㄔҿࣖ࢝Ⲻ伄䲟χ䴶≸གྷ㤅у਀人ᵕⲺ伄䲟χᡆᵢ⌘ࣞⲺ伄䲟Ⱦ 䈭ࣗᗻ䰻䈱↙ᮽҁ੄Ⲻރ䍙ᶗⅴ䜞࠼ 3 ⴤᖋ 1 㺂ѐޢਮঀᒪᣛ⛯䇺 ....................................................................... 5 1.1 ঄⏜ச䞈φ࡟⏜㺞⧦ᢵুθсঀᒪ䬶䠅ૂਫ਼ᡆᵢᴿᵑ⧥∊᭯஺ ................................ 5 1.2 ⠋Ӣச䞈φѐ㔟ㅜਾ↚ࢃ人઀ѣᷘθൽԭੂ∊ࣖ䙕ᨆॽ ...................................... 5 1.3 㡃ᗍ䞈ѐφ㔅㩛ু࣑ᣛ㺞ㄥݻ࠼։⧦ ..................................................... 6 1.4 ᆿӋ伕૷φ㔅㩛丝ᙝᕰθ㛗Գ᭥Ԏ/ 㺛ࣟㅿᖧଃ㺞㿸࡟⏜ ..................................... 7 1.5 ࣨԊ伕૷φඐᤷ㚐❜ཝঋ૷ᡎ⮛θ࡟⏜ᤷ㔣އ⧦ ........................................... 8 2 伕૷侤ᯏ㺂ѐᵢઞ㺞⧦ .......