连锁反应：供应链重组和跨境信贷动态（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1315 The ripple effect: supply chain reconfigurations and cross-border credit dynamics by Ricardo Correa, Andrea Fabiani, Matias Ossandon Busch and Miguel Sarmiento Monetary and Economic Department December 2025 JEL classification: G21, F34, F42 Keywords: trade disruptions, cross-border credit, firm-to-firm credit, global value chains BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) The Ripple Effect: Supply Chain Reconfigurationsand Cross-border Credit DynamicsúRicardo CorreaaAndrea FabianibMatias Ossandon Buschc,dMiguel Sarmientoe,fAbstractWe study the role that cross-border firm-to-firm credit plays in financing exporters.Exploiting the exogenous shock of US tariffs on Chinese goods in 2018–2019, weexamine the response of Colombian firms – bystanders not targeted by trade policy – toredirected US demand. Using credit registry information for cross-border and domesticnon-financial firm financing, we find that almost 40 percent of the total credit sourcedby exporters came from cross-border firm-to-firm credit at end-2019, which represented80 percent of their cross-border credit. In contrast to traditional trade credit, whichis typically short-term, firm-to-firm credit has an average maturity of almost 2 years,and has characteristics resembling bank lending. Our findings highlight an overlookedfinancial channel underpinning the international trade network.Keywords: Trade disruptions, cross-border credit, firm-to-firm credit, global valuechainsJEL Codes: G21, F34, F42úWe thank JaeBin Ahn, Maria Aristizabal Ramirez, Paula Beltrán, Gabriela Cugat, Jon Frost, CarlosQuicazán, Camilo Gómez, Nan Li, Andrés Múrcia, Andrea Presbitero, Leslie Sheng-Shen, Petia Topalova,Giacomo Romanini, Andrés Trejos, Hernando Vargas, Robert Zymek, and participants at the InternationalMonetary Fund Research Seminar (Washington DC), Research Seminar of the Bank of Italy, the 2024 AnnualMeeting of the Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA, Frankfurt), the 2025 Annual Conference ofthe Banco Central do Brasil, the 2025 BIS-CEPR-Gerzensee-SFI Conference on Financial Intermediation,Research Seminar of the Central Bank of Colombia, and the 31st Conference of the Society for ComputationalEconomics (Santiago) for valuable comments and suggestions. Part of this research was developed duringMiguel Sarmiento’s visit to the