IMF-低收入国家债务脆弱性的最新发展和趋势（英）

© 20[xx] International Monetary Fund DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN LOW INCOME COUNTRIES RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS IMF staff regularly produces papers proposing new IMF policies, exploring options for reform, or reviewing existing IMF policies and operations. The Report prepared by IMF and World Bank staff and completed on October 10, 2025, has been released. The staff report was issued to the Executive Board for information. The report was prepared by IMF and World Bank staff. The views expressed in this paper are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF's Executive Board. The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. Electronic copies of IMF Policy Papers are available to the public from http://www.imf.org/external/pp/ppindex.aspx International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. October 2025 DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS Approved By Guillaume Chabert (IMF) and Manuela Francisco (WB) Prepared by Christopher Dielmann and Miguel Ricaurte (IMF) and Mellany Pintado Vasquez, Wissam Harake, Patricio Merlani, Chenyu Mao, Muazu Ibrahim, Mariela Caycho Arce, Tessy Vasquez Baos, and Tsegaye Anduanbessa Assayew (WB) under the overall guidance of Karina Garcia (IMF) and Luca Bandiera (WB). Data analytics and visualization support were provided by Joyce Saito, Songchen Xie, Luisa Ballen, and Chen Chen. Administrative assistance was provided by Claudia Isern and Eiman Afshar (all IMF). CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms _________________________________________________________ 3 INTRODUCTION _____________________________________________________________________ 4 EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC DEBT VULNERABILITIES __________________________________ 6 EVOLUTION OF PUBLIC DOMESTIC DEBT VULNERABILITIES ____________________ 14 KEY TAKEAWAYS ___________________________________________________________________ 26 BOXES 1. Developments in Domestic Debt Transparency ___________________________________ 17 2. Analysis of Domestic Debt Stress Episodes: Central Bank and the Domestic Banking and Non-Banking Sectors’ Balance Sheet Characteristics ___________________ 25 October 10, 2025 DEBT VULNERABILITIES IN LICS RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS 2 FIGURES 1. Number of LICs and Youth Living in Countries with High Debt Vulnerabilities, 2024 ___________ 5 2. Public Debt to GDP and Primary Balances to GDP______________________________________________ 7 3. Evolution of IMF-World Bank LIC-DSF Risk Ratings ____________________________________________ 8 4. High External Debt Risk Rating: Pattern of Breaches of Debt Indicators Thresholds by Type ___ 9 5. Evolution of GFNs by Components ____________________________________________________________ 10 6. LIC Bond Spreads and Underlying Yields ______________________________________________________ 1