技术对中美洲和多米尼加共和国移民美国的影响（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11251The Impact of Technology on Migration to the United States from Central America and the Dominican RepublicMariana ViollazLuis LaguingeHarry MorozSocial Protection and Labor Global DepartmentNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11251Labor markets in Central America and the Dominican Republic face limited direct impacts from technological advancements compared to developed countries. How-ever, substantial migration flows to high-income countries, particularly the United States, mean that the impacts of technological change do not stop at country borders. During the past 50 years, recent migrants from both Central America and the Dominican Republic and other countries, like US nonmigrant workers, have shifted out of production jobs requiring (automatable) routine manual and cognitive skills. Although recent non–Central America and the Dominican Republic migrants and US nonmi-grants transitioned to higher-skilled work intensive in nonroutine cognitive and interpersonal tasks (for example, management), recent migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic shifted toward jobs intensive in nonroutine manual tasks (for example, construction) and, to a lesser extent, in nonroutine interpersonal tasks (for example, serving). In essence, migrants from other middle- and high-income countries have benefited from the same technology-skill complementarity as nonmigrant US workers, whereas migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic seem to have filled the lower-skilled jobs created alongside technological advancement. The low-skill bias of migrants from Central America and the Dominican Republic suggests greater vulnerability to dis-ruption from artificial intelligence and mobile robotics, but less from language models like ChatGPT. Closer analysis of US robot adoption between 2000 and 2019 shows no effect on total migration flows from Central America and the Dominican Republic but impacts on high-skilled flows between 2010 and 2019. US r