联合国贸易发展委员会-重新审视发展中国家的贸易与贫困关系（英）

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and boundaries. This paper has not been formally edited.Poverty, trade, developing countries, Africa, post-double-selection, PDS, lasso.Key wordsAbstractPatrick N. OsakweTrade, Poverty and Inequalities Branch, ALDC, UNCTADpatrick.osakwe@unctad.orgOlga SollederTrade, Poverty and Inequalities Branch, ALDC, UNCTAD olga.solleder@unctad.org U NITED N ATIO NS CO NFE R E NCE O N T R A D E A N D D E VE L OP M E N TRevisiting the Trade-Poverty Nexus in Developing CountriesThis paper revisits the trade-poverty relationship in developing countries using panel data and recent estimation techniques that control for omitted variable bias. It finds robust evidence that more trade dependence (as measured by a higher trade-GDP ratio) reduces poverty in developing countries but has no statistically significant effect on poverty in Africa. It also finds that trade reforms (as measured by changes in tariffs) have no systematic effect on poverty in either developing countries or in Africa. When interaction effects are introduced, we find that trade is a necessary but not sufficient condition for poverty reduction and that country characteristics play an important role in determining whether potential benefits of trade will be realised in any specific context.Working paper September 2025UNCTAD/WP/2025/2#102Working paper #10September 2025ContentsAcknowledgementsThe authors thank two anonymous referees, as well as UNCTAD colleagues, Anida Yupari Aguado and Paul Akiwumi, for comments and suggestions.2Working paper #10September 20251.Introduction ............................................................................... 32.Stylised facts on trade and poverty ........................................ 53.Empirical approach and data .................................................. 84.Estimation results .................................................................. 105.Robustness checks ................................................................ 186.Conclusions ............................................................................ 20References ................................................................................. 22Annex .......................................................................................... 253Working paper #10September 20251. IntroductionInternational trade is considered an important mechanism through which economies could potentially foster sustained growth and eradicate poverty (Estevadeordal and Taylor 2013). By opening an econ