CEPR-地缘政治紧张与国际分裂：证据与启示（英）

Anusha Chari, Nathan Converse, Arnaud Mehl, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Isabel VansteenkisteGEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FRAGMENTATIONEVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONSGENEVA REPORTS ON THE WORLD ECONOMY 28ICMB INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIESCIMB CENTRE INTERNATIONALD’ETUDES MONETAIRESET BANCAIRESGEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FRAGMENTATIONEVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS Geneva Reports on the World Economy 28INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES (ICMB)International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies2, Chemin Eugène-Rigot 1202 GenevaSwitzerlandTel: (41 22) 734 9548Fax: (41 22) 733 3853Web: www.icmb.ch© 2025 International Center for Monetary and Banking StudiesCENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCHCentre for Economic Policy Research187 boulevard Saint-Germain, 1er étage75007 Paris France2 Coldbath SquareLondon EC1R 5HLUKTel: +44 (20) 7183 8801Fax: +44 (20) 7183 8820Email: cepr@cepr.orgWeb: www.cepr.orgISBN: 978-1-912179-97-8GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FRAGMENTATION EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS Geneva Reports on the World Economy 28Anusha ChariUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NBER and CEPRNathan Converse Federal Reserve BoardArnaud Mehl European Central Bank and CEPRGian Maria Milesi-FerrettiHutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, The Brookings Institution and CEPRIsabel VansteenkisteEuropean Central Bank and CEPR ICMB INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIESCIMB CENTRE INTERNATIONALD’ETUDES MONETAIRESET BANCAIRESTHE INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR MONETARY AND BANKING STUDIES (ICMB)The International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMB) was created in 1973 as an independent, non-profit foundation. It is associated with Geneva’s Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies. Its aim is to foster exchanges of views between the financial sector, central banks and academics on issues of common interest. It is financed through grants from banks, financial institutions and central banks. The Center sponsors international conferences, public lectures, original research and publications. In association with CEPR, the Center has published the Geneva Reports on the World Economy since 1999. These reports attract considerable interest among practitioners, policymakers and scholars. ICMB is non-partisan and does not take any view on policy. Its publications, including the present report, reflect the opinions of the authors, not of ICMB or any of its sponsoring institutions. The President of the Foundation Board is Martin Schlegel and the Director is Ugo Panizza. CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC POLICY RESEARCH (CEPR)The Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) is a network of almost 1,900 research economists based mostly in European universities. The Centre’s goal is twofold: to promote world-class research, and to get the policy-relevant results into the hands of key decision-makers. CEPR’s guiding principle is ‘Research excellen