艾昆纬-Semagulide LOE在印度_-一个需要新剧本的难得机会（英）

White PaperSemaglutide LoE in India A rare opportunity demanding a new playbookASIT SABAT, Senior Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIA DHIRAJ MENDIRATTA, Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIANIMITT DESAI, Associate Principal, Management Consulting, IQVIATable of contentsIntroduction 1India’s role in shaping the global anti-obesity opportunity 2Why Semaglutide’s LOE in India may reshape both IPM and the global obesity market 2Semaglutide’s LOE in India: Historical trends vs. emerging paradigms 3Historical LOE playbook: common themes 3Semaglutide’s LOE in India: A distinct departure from historical norms 4Estimating the total market opportunity 11Strategic imperatives for generics players 13Strategic imperatives for innovators 14Key factors that are likely to play in favor of the innovators 14Key challenges the innovators need to navigate 15Conclusion: India’s Semaglutide LOE — A strategic blueprint for global obesity care 16For innovators 16For generics players 16For the global obesity ecosystem 16Appendix 17References 19About the authors 21 iqvia.com | 1IntroductionObesity is no longer a marginal health issue, it is a global epidemic with systemic implications across cardiometabolic health, mental well-being, and healthcare economics. By 2050, nearly two- thirds of the global adult population is projected to be overweight or obese, with Asia contributing significantly to this surge. The global anti-obesity market is forecasted to reach between $100 billion and $200 billion by 2030, driven by a rich pipeline of over 150 assets, expanding indications, and rising patient demand.1,2India is at the center of this transformation. With over 150M individuals above the BMI threshold for pharmacotherapy and a rapidly growing self- pay segment, India is not just a large market, it is a strategic launchpad for the next wave of obesity care. Semaglutide’s Loss of Exclusivity (LoE) in India, expected within 12 months of innovator launch, creates a rare convergence of scale, timing, and strategic ambiguity — where market rules are still being written.This paper contends that semaglutide’s LOE in India is unlikely to follow the traditional generics playbook. The market is still being shaped, patient journeys are evolving, and therapy adoption is influenced as much by patient pull as by prescriber push. The compressed innovator launch window, coupled with rising patient awareness and evolving diagnostic frameworks, creates a strategic white space, one that demands reinvention, not replication.This paper draws on IQVIA’s global and India- specific research to address five critical questions that will shape strategic choices for both innovators and generics players:• Why India will be a critical market for the global anti-obesity opportunity?• Will semaglutide’s LOE in India follow historical patterns of other LoEs, or will it redefine them?• What is the overall opportunity size?• What are the strategic imperatives for generics players?• What are the strat