欧洲央行-欧元区经济与通货膨胀环境的战略视角（英）

Occasional Paper Series A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area Workstream 1: Changing economic and inflation environment No 371 Disclaimer: This paper constitutes staff input into the Governing Council’s deliberation in the context of the ECB’s 2025 monetary policy strategy assessment. This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the Eurosystem. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Eurosystem. Contributors Acknowledgments This report has been jointly produced by the Eurosystem workstream on the changing economic and inflation environment - comprising staff from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the national central banks (NCBs) of those countries that have adopted the euro. The workstream was supported by two task forces: the task force on "Drivers of inflation and evolution of r*" (TF1) and the task force on "Analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting" (TF2), each subdivided into a number of focus groups. The report fed into the Governing Council’s deliberations on the 2025 assessment of the monetary policy strategy. Workstream leads Christiane Nickel European Central Bank email: christiane.nickel@ecb.europa.eu Juha Kilponen Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank email: juha.kilponen@bof.fi Enrique Moral-Benito Banco de España email: enrique.moral@bde.es Coordinator Gerrit Koester European Central Bank email: gerrit.koester@ecb.europa.eu Task force leads Matteo Ciccarelli European Central Bank email: matteo.ciccarelli@ecb.europa.eu Almira Enders Deutsche Bundesbank email: almira.enders@bundesbank.de Sarah Holton European Central Bank email: sarah.holton@ecb.europa.eu Bettina Landau European Central Bank email: bettina.landau@ecb.europa.eu Fabrizio Venditti Banca d'Italia email: fabrizio.venditti@bancaditalia.it Focus group leads Elena Bobeica European Central Bank email: elena.bobeica@ecb.europa.eu Claus Brand European Central Bank email: claus.brand@ecb.europa.eu Pablo Burriel Banco de España email: pburriel@bde.es Maarten Dossche European Central Bank email: maarten.dossche@ecb.europa.eu Gabriele Galati De Nederlandsche Bank email: e.b.g.galati@dnb.nl Michele Lenza European Central Bank email: michele.lenza@ecb.europa.eu David Lodge European Central Bank email: david.lodge@ecb.europa.eu Eva Ortega Banco de España email: eortega@bde.es Beatrice Pierluigi European Central Bank email: beatrice.pierluigi@ecb.europa.eu Harri Pönkä Suomen Pankki – Finlands Bank email: harri.ponka@bof.fi Thomas Warmedinger European Central Bank email: thomas.warmedinger@ecb.europa.eu Workstream members Branislav Albert Národná banka Slovenska Ugo Albertazzi European Central Bank Maria Grazia Attinasi European Central Bank Marta Banbura European Central Bank Niccolò Battistini European Central Bank Andrejs Bessonovs Latvijas Banka Dennis Bonam European Central Bank Vladimir Borgy Banque de France Pablo Burriel Banco de España Alexandre Carvalho Banco de