2025年通信行业中期策略报告：算力链长坡厚雪，运营商攻防兼备

2025/6/23123海外算力链量价齐升：光模块量价齐升，服务器出货加快45Bloomberg223246315323525750152187314273373680401611636527830100015420623928144580011%28%2%63%43%23%68%-13%37%83%52%4%-17%57%20%34%16%18%58%80%-400%-300%-200%-100%0%100%020040060080010001200202020212022202320242025E谷歌META亚马逊微软谷歌-YoYMETA-YoY亚马逊-YoY微软-YoY6Wind697.5995.01366.71568.626.3%29.8%34.1%34.7%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0%35.0%40.0%0.0200.0400.0600.0800.01000.01200.01400.01600.01800.02021202220232024光模块单价（元）光模块毛利率（%）72.694.1101.8228.929.6%8.2%124.8%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.02021202220232024光模块收入（亿元）YoY7Wind28.432.530.385.914.4%-6.7%183.4%-50%0%50%100%150%200%0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0100.02021202220232024点对点光模块收入（亿元）YoY0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%20212022202320241Q25新易盛中际旭创天孚通信8数据来源：Wind，天孚通信公司公告，新浪财经，网易新闻，国金证券研究所供应链公司产品台积电3D光引擎芯片与Switch芯片的加工与先进封装天孚通信FAU、光引擎波若威FAU、光纤配线盒、保偏光纤准直器Corning（康宁）光纤光缆、shuffle devices、MMC连接器Senko（扇港）MPC连接器Fabrinet交换机的组装与生产Foxconn（富士康）交换机的组装与生产Lumentum激光器Coherent激光器SUMITOMO（住友）激光器芯片SPIL（日月光子公司） 封测资料来源：英伟达官网，各公司官网，国金证券研究117852187461,6557449209601,1831,57616.9%17.2%63.8%67.5%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,80020202021202220232024光有源器件收入（百万元）光无源器件收入（百万元）公司收入YoY9iFindBloombergeBay-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%太辰光营业收入YoY康宁光通信Enterprise Network业务收入YoY10WindLightcounting-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.002021202220232024营业收入（亿元）净利润（亿元）营业收入YOY（%）近利润YOY（%）0.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%45.00%50.00%202020212022202320241Q2025太辰光仕佳光子致尚科技博创科技11Wind3.153.634.403.616.061.592.172.241.852.311.812.212.201.922.190.160.160.200.170.180.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0020202021202220232024光芯片及器件线缆材料室内光缆其他业务12650 GroupWindifind2.37.10.11.01.03.00.02.04.06.08.010.012.0CY23CY28Inside data center opticalInside data center AECDCI02468101214020406080100120202020212022202320241Q2025研发费用（百万元）研发费用率（%）13SemiAnalysisIDCEET China14EET China工业富联广达纬创营业收入（亿）5839128139826综合费用率2.65%3.48%4.30%毛利率7.28%7.85%8.01%净利率7.67%7.36%3.35%存货周转天数51.6153.457.89国产算力链蓄势待发：建议关注交换机、液冷板块15图：2025年阿里、腾讯、字节资本开支预计将有双位数增长资料来源：Bloomberg，IDC，c114，国金证券研究所-350%-250%-150%-50%50%150%250%050100150200250300350400阿里巴巴百度腾讯阿里巴巴-YoY百度-YoY腾讯-YoY资料来源：爱分析，中研网，国金证券研究所图：交换机等网络设备采购约占总资本开支的11%服务器69.0%网络设备11.0%安全设备9.0%存储设备6.0%光模块等5.0%17650 GroupIDC18%17%13%17%42%49%57%61%82%83%87%83%58%51%43%39%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E以太网IB99.24101.42125.05222.15222.22217.682.2%23.3%0.0%-2.0%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%0.050.0100.0150.0200.0250.0202220232024中国以太网数据中心交换机市场规模（亿元）中国以太网非数据中心交换机市场规模（亿元）数据中心交换机同比非数通交换机同比18650 GroupISCT’24ODCC ETH-XGPU Scale-up OISA公司超节点技术/方案核心参数阿里ALink System (ALS)支持UALink协议，单柜百TB/s级吞吐原生支持内存语义，显存共享达TB级腾讯ETH-X开放超节点256卡Scale Up训练成本降低38%128卡推理性能提升40%字节自研超节点架构2025年计划投入200亿美元建设海外AI基础设施火山引擎数据中心部署超万卡集群中国移动OISA协议超节点（“国芯国连”集群）单节点集成64张国产AI芯片互连带宽896GB/s，交换容量51.2T19IDCAIifindc114ODCC30.828.8>4077.976.2<670.020.040.060.080.0100.0120.0202220232024新华三非数据中心交换机收入（亿元）新华三数据中心交换机收入（亿元）48.3%