英文【奥纬咨询】压力之下——在当今抵押贷款市场蓬勃发展

UNDER PRESSURE The key to thriving in today’s mortgage marketAhmet HacikuraAlina LantsbergNick Dykstra© Oliver Wyman2Under Pressure: The Key To Thriving In Today’s Mortgage MarketEXECUTIVE SUMMARYBank leaders need a practical conceptual framework to support the complex, interconnected decisions they must make about their mortgage business. Can they pass on the large opportunity? Is there a way to put mortgages back on a path to profitability? Prevent another year of lackluster results and prepare for the next up cycle? Or is it time to retreat, cutting losses and reducing footprint in a highly complex and competitive industry?The mortgage market is a perilous one, but far too big to ignore, representing 70% of household debt and a fundamental need in customers’ lives. We are currently in a particularly delicate phase of the mortgage business cycle: Following one of the largest refinancing booms in history and a significant shift in market share towards nonbank lenders, rising interest rates and housing affordability challenges have drastically cut growth expectations, intensifying competition and weighing down profitability.Banks must be able to weigh the risks and benefits of different paths forward, balance short-term and long-term objectives, and remain responsive to changes in a highly cyclical industry. It is easy to lose a lot of money — either slowly through inefficiency, or quickly through poor credit risk management or by failing to comply with requirements and causing customer harm. An unfocused and undifferentiated “me-too” offering may hurt customer relationships and be economically unviable either on a stand-alone basis or as a contributor to the broader bank organization.We propose three strategy archetypes that can help bank leaders lead this business in a more systematic way: treating mortgage as a stand-alone business, as a relationship anchor, or simply as an accommodation. Success factors differ markedly between these three business models, and the archetypes can help bank leaders navigate these high-impact decisions in a more systematic way to chart a path back to growth and profitability.© Oliver Wyman3Under Pressure: The Key To Thriving In Today’s Mortgage MarketCHALLENGING MARKET AND COMPETITIVE CONTEXTMODEST GROWTH EXPECTATIONSWhile origination volumes will recover, they are unlikely to reach the peaks seen during the recent refinance boom years. High mortgage rates have impacted affordability, while rising home prices and economic uncertainty dampen homebuyer sentiment.In 2020 and 2021, the industry saw record levels of originations, driven largely by a refinance spike as interest rates fell to historic lows. Following a sharp increase in rates in 2022, origination volumes in 2023 and 2024 were the lowest of the past 10 years.Exhibit 1: US mortgage originationMortgage purchase origination volumeMM loans Mortgage refinance origination volumeMM loans20218.82.32.620222026P20215.44.44.020222026PSource: Mortgage Bankers Associa