联合国西亚经济社会委员会-美国关税冲击波：对阿拉伯地区的影响（英）

United States tariff shockwaves: impacts on the Arab region©fadi/stock.adobe.com.1IntroductionThe Arab region stands at a pivotal juncture in its economic relations with the United States of America following the 2 April announcement of sweeping tariffs under President Trump’s “America First” policy. An additional blanket 10 per cent tariff was imposed on nearly all imports, with even steeper penalties – ranging from 10 per cent to 42 per cent – targeting countries with significant trade surpluses withthe United States, such as China and Viet Nam, but also withinsignificant trade ties including many Arab States.11. Executive Order 14257, 2 April 2025.E/ESCWA/CL3.SEP/2025/Policy brief.12While energy, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber are currently exempted, non-oil exports such as textiles, fertilizers, chemicals, aluminium and electronics are now subject to high tariffs. These measures effectively nullify the preferential treatment previously granted to Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Oman under bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs), marking a shift away from long-standing trade partnerships. Even imports from Egypt and Jordan’s Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs) are not exempted from the universal tariff.This new wave of trade restrictions is markedly different from past United States-China tensions in three key aspects: it is global in scope, imposes historically high tariffs that exceed the World Trade Organization commitments, and remains politically fluid, with potential for bilateral revisions.Against all expectations, on 9 April, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on all “reciprocal” tariffs except those imported from China which will see tariffs increased to at least 145 per cent. Moreover, on 11 April, the White House announced the removal of reciprocal tariffs from a range of electronic goods covering smartphones and computers, among others. China would receive the greatest benefit from these new exemptions, which represent around 22 per cent of its goods exports to the United States market.2The present brief is part of the continued efforts by ESCWA to timely monitor and evaluate the impacts of global changes on the region’s economic prospects. It provides a preliminary, short-term estimate of macroeconomic impacts on the Arab region in 2025, focusing on mechanical effects of trade diversion rather than full-scale global value chain (GVC) realignments, which require more time to materialize.2. ESCWA calculations using TradeMap.3.2United States-Arab trade relations:key highlights2.1 Changing pattern of the United States trade relevance to the Arab region Arab exports of goods to the United States dropped from $91 billion in 2013 (6 per cent of total) to $48 billion in 2024 (3.5 per cent of total), largely due to reduced United States imports of crude oil and petroleum products. The United States has maintained a trade surplus with the Arab region since 2015, which was about $20 billion in 2024, suggesting that the