PMorgan Econ FI-China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series 20) Checking in on...-110700630

Asia Pacific Economic Research09 October 2024J P M O R G A Nwww.jpmorganmarkets.comEmerging Markets Asia, Economic and Policy ResearchTingting Ge(852) 2800-0143tingting.ge@jpmorgan.comHaibin Zhu(852) 2800-7039haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.comGrace Ng(852) 2800-7002grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong BranchWhile waiting for 3Q GDP and September activity report, we update where the National Day holiday (Oct 1-7) activity stands after recent policy easing, along with our routine alt-data trackers. Key takeaways are below (vs. the last update on Sep 18).•The number of tourists during the National Day holiday was 10.2% higher than the 2019 level, while tourism revenue was 7.9% higher. Tourism expenditure per capita ticked lower to 98% (vs. 102% for Mid-Autumn Festival holiday).•MOC reported 4.5%oya retail and catering holiday growth, with solid auto and home appliances sales, benefitting from trade-in subsidy support.•13.1 million cross-border trips were made during the holiday, up 25.8%oya. OAG tracks a jump in China’s holiday outbound flights to Macau, IT, SG, TH. •CREIS’ 25 major cities’ daily average new home sales rose 23%oya after adjusting for month-end seasonality. Shenzhen’s new home sales registration surged 664.14%oya and secondary home sales jumped 339%.•Centaline’s index surged, surpassing the jump after the May policy easing, but still half-way compared to that after China’s reopening in early 2023.•Holiday movie box revenue was 2.1bn yuan, ¾ of 2023 and <½ of 2019. •Special LGB issuance reached 1028bn yuan for September, along with 389bn yuan for CGB. YTD issuance tracks 92% for special LGB, and 78% for CGB.•Departing ships’ deadweight tonnage declined 6.6%oya in September.•Container freight cost dropped further, for most China outbound routes.•30-major cities’ new home sales fell 32.4%oya in Sept (vs. -24.3% in August).•7-major cities’ secondary home sales inched up 2.3%oya (vs. 25.9% in Aug).•For 1-22 September, passenger car retail sales were up 10%oya, and NEV retail sales rose a solid 47%oya or 7%m/m nsa.•Operating rates were up for petroleum asphalt, coke oven and steel rebar plants, down for all-steel tire plants.•Agricultural food prices surged another 12.1%oya or 4.2%m/m nsa in September and pork prices rose 19.5%oya, though both ticked lower in October. Commodity prices picked up for cement, aluminum & steel rebar.1030507090110130LNYLabor DayNational DayLNYLabor DayNational DayNew YearLNYLabor DayNational DayNew YearLNYLabor DayMid-Autumn…National Day2021202220232024Number of touristTourism revenueExpenditure per capitaSource: Ministry of Culture and Tourism, J.P. MorganHoliday tourism% of 2019-1.5-1.0-0.50.00.51.01.52.00102030405060701112131415161718192021222324China secondary home priceSource: Centaline, NBS, J.P. MorganIndexNBS 70-city secondary home priceCentaline tier-1 cities’ asking price index%m/m nsaSee page 11 for analyst certification and important disclosures.China alt-data trackers chartpack (Series