Barclays_US_Credit_Alpha_The_yield_tide_lifts_all_credit_boats

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 63.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 63.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 64.US Credit AlphaThe yield tide lifts all credit boatsMoney market rotation is unlikely for another 6m. Electronictrading is surging, but voice remains essential. HY new issueposted its best YTD performance in September. IG utilityissuance should keep rising. ESG funds are OW banks and UW IGutils and HY energy & gaming. We present tactical hedges aheadof the US election.US Credit AlphaOverview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Credit remains resilient in the face of rising rate volatility and Fed-related uncertainty. Higherrates have fueled continued demand, driving some parts of the market to their tightest levelssince 2000. However, higher rate volatility and upcoming election uncertainty could weigh onspreads.FocusMoney flows: Time to leave cash? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5Knowing when to leave a good party may be a skill. Is it time for cash to shift into risk assets nowthat the Fed is lowering rates? We don't think so.FocusThe human touch: Why the bond market will continue to have a voice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14Electronic trading is reshaping bond markets, just like it transformed equities. But there arelimits to automation. The "three Cs" of voice trading – capital, customization, and community –remain essential. Together, electronic and voice systems can create a more resilient market andadd both depth and breadth.FICC ResearchCredit Strategy11 October 2024FOCUSBradley Rogoff, CFA+1 212 412 7921bradley.rogoff@barclays.comBCI, USDominique Toublan+1 212 412 3841dominique.toublan@barclays.comBCI, USCompleted: 10-Oct-24, 22:22 GMTReleased: 11-Oct-24, 10:30 GMTRestricted - ExternalInvestment GradeOne of life's rare certainties: Higher utility issuance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28We expect $110bn of index-eligible issuance for utilities in 2025, a moderate step up