Barclays_Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Giving_a_Boost

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.* This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research AnalystAll research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other required disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in thispublication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 35.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 35.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 36.Global Portfolio Manager's DigestGiving a BoostWe provide context and perspective on research across regionsand asset classes, this week highlighting our key takes onstimulus measures in China; four themes with high election risk/materiality; and our search for historical parallels to today'seconomy using a quantitative approach.• Thoughts on China's Stimulus Measures: In our view, while none of the fiscal measureshave been confirmed and a lot remains unanswered heading into the US elections, China’sreported 2 trillion yuan fiscal package and other support measures are reducing downsiderisks for output, but are likely too incremental to arrest the property downturn and stabilizethe economy. Yet the statement of intent to support consumers directly may be big news,especially if this is a precursor to an even bigger package. As a result, we ran a “what if”exercise on a two-year 10 trillion yuan fiscal plan: economically, assuming a 5 trillion yuanproperty stabilization fund and a 4 trillion yuan consumption subsidy over two years, theacceleration to GDP is likely to be 1pp. For FX, we highlight that times of large China stimulusalso see the broad dollar depreciate. For rates, we expect the curve to steepen in the NDIRSand CGB space. For credit, the stimulus announcements do not change our view that China'spolicy is increasingly favoring self-reliance and companies that can drive the consumption/high-tech-investment economy. And for equities, we maintain our preference for China overIndia but recommend waiting for better levels to re-engage in the spread.• The Election Through a Thematic Lens: From a thematic perspective, there is a lot at stakein the Novembe