牛津经济研究院-WTO解散对发展经济的影响（英）

The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolutionApril 2024April 2024 |The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution | 2Table of contentsTable of contents .....................................................................................2Executive Summary ................................................................................31. Introduction............................................................................................62. Modelling assumptions .....................................................................82.1 Scenario definition ......................................................................................................82.2 Modelling approach ................................................................................................103. Economic impact results .................................................................. 113.1 Impact on trade flows ...............................................................................................113.2 Impact on foreign direct investment .................................................................. 123.3 Impact on productivity levels ............................................................................... 123.4 Impact on GDP ......................................................................................................... 13Appendix I: Methodology .....................................................................15Appendix II: Bibliography ..................................................................... 19April 2024 |The impact on developing economies of WTO dissolution | 3Executive SummaryOxford Economics have been commissioned by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) to provide an independent assessment of the potential impact of WTO dissolution on developing economies (middle-income and low-income countries). This report details our findings and the assumptions underpinning our analysis.Scenario definitionA number of scenarios could be envisaged that would result in the abandonment of the rules-based multilateral trading system and WTO dissolution. All would entail negative repercussions for global trade, but the level of severity varies considerably depending on the specific assumptions employed. For example, a severe but plausible scenario could involve a global trade war resulting in policy-driven geoeconomic fragmentation; at the opposite end of the spectrum, a less extreme scenario for WTO dissolution could involve a more gradual erosion of trust eventually resulting in a breakdown of members’ commitments to the rules-based system. We have taken a conservative approach to demonstrate our hypothesis that even a “best case” scenario for WTO dissolution would have substantial negative repercussions for developing economies that rely on trade as a critical enabler of growth.In our scenario, the demise of the rules-based multilateral trading system results in greater uncertainty and higher informatio