加拿大商业地产展望-英-36页.pdf

Canadian Commercial Real Estate Outlook | Fall 2023114.88Canadian Commercial Real Estate OutlookFall 2023Economy and Capital MarketsCanadian Commercial Real Estate Outlook | Fall 2023Canada’s economy contracted in Q2 and might be in a recessionGlobal economic growth has been surprisingly buoyant over the past year, with many countries defying predictions of a recession. This was echoed in Canada where consumer spending – supported by rapid population growth, tight labour markets, and elevated household savings - has increasingly powered the economy. However, the rate of economic growth has been slowing for most of the past year (see Figure 1). Further moderation is expected as high interest rates weigh on business investment and China, a key importer, is expected to slow. Manufacturing orders, a leading indicator of demand, are down in Europe and the United States which could lead to a fall in exports. Meanwhile, there is some evidence of a slowing job market (see Figure 2) which could dampen consumer spending. Indeed, the latest readings from Statistics Canada suggest that the economy contracted in the second quarter at an annualized rate of -0.2% and growth was most likely flat in July. This should give the Bank of Canada the evidence it needs to pause interest rate hikes. Labour market is starting to softenWhile the job market remains extremely tight by historical standards, it appears that high interest rates are starting to have their intended softening effect. After rising for the third consecutive month, the national unemployment rate stands at 5.5%. May was the first month in a year that saw job losses exceed job creation. According to Statistics Canada, job vacancies (a measure of open and unfilled positions) fell from over 1 million in Q2 2022 to just over 753,000 in June. This could be a leading indicator suggesting that the labour market is softening as companies prepare for lower headcount. Through July the Canadian economy has gained about 293,500 net new jobs this year. Sectors that have seen the most job growth over this time are transportation and warehousing (up 50k jobs), manufacturing (+48k), healthcare and social assistance (+41k) and wholesale and retail trade (+41k). Sectors that have seen job losses this year are construction (lost 71k jobs); professional, scientific, and technical services (-34k); and business, building, and support services (-26k). Figure 1. Real GDP Growth, quarterly changeSource: JLL Research, Statistics CanadaSource: JLL Research, Statistics Canada*Seasonally adjusted annualized rateFigure 2. Unemployment rate and job vacancy Macroeconomic overview5.5%4.2%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%Unemployment RateJob Vacancy Rate5.3%-2.3%5.8%6.9%2.6%3.6%2.3%-0.1%2.6%-0.2%-5%0%5%10%15%20%Q1 2021Q2 2021Q3 2021Q4 2021Q1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022Q4 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Canadian Commercial Real Estate Outlook | Fall 2023Inflation: the “last mile” problemSince the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates, the Canadian Consumer Price