深度报告：千亿赛道消费升级，区域龙头扬帆奋楫

永泰运(001228.SZ)深度报告：千亿赛道消费升级，区域龙头扬帆奋楫评级：买入(首次覆盖)证券研究报告2023年07月31日物流行业许可(证券分析师)周延宇(证券分析师)钟文海(证券分析师)S0350521080001S0350521090001S0350523050003xuk02@ghzq.com.cnzhouyy01@ghzq.com.cnzhongwh@ghzq.com.cn请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明2相对沪深300表现表现1M3M12M永泰运6.7%0.6%-33.0%沪深3004.5%-0.4%-3.7%最近一年走势预测指标2022A2023E2024E2025E营业收入（百万元）3012276637524631增长率(%)40-83623归母净利润（百万元）294253342431增长率(%)76-143526摊薄每股收益（元）2.832.443.294.15ROE(%)18141616P/E16.0216.8012.459.87P/B3.152.291.941.62P/S1.711.541.130.92EV/EBITDA10.848.876.965.34资料来源：Wind资讯、国海证券研究所-0.4106-0.2973-0.1840-0.07070.04250.1558永泰运沪深300请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明3◆ 华东危险品供应链领先者，商业模式快速复制带来高增长永泰运成立于2002年 ，历经21年发展成就华东危险品供应链领军企业。公司围绕主要港口城市和化工园区内稀缺的危险品仓库资源，为国内外化工企业提供仓、代、运、销等一体化供应链服务。2022年公司上市得到资本加持，其商业模式在深化的同时快速复制，公司进入收入高速增长与收入结构优化的黄金时期。2018-2022年，公司营收CAGR45.71%，归母净利润CAGR53.96%，2020-2022年平均ROE22.16%。◆ 需求：7900亿元空间持续扩张，市场分层“消费升级”危险品物流是传统工业物流的分支，根据我们测算，2022年其3PL市场约7900亿元，同时需求的内涵在不断扩张，除原油、化工这些传统领域外，新材料、新能源等市场需求也不断涌现。2015年是行业市场分层的起点，重大安全事故出现导致行业、上下游安全监管强度明显上升，需求在强监管背景下被催熟，要求合规、一体化的“消费升级”需求出现，市场分层的趋势明显加速。◆ 供给：资质、资源、运营三重壁垒，成长空间与定价能力兼备行业拥有三重护城河：资质是行业第一道护城河，中国特色的多部门联合HSE监管体系将大多数竞争者隔绝在外；区域垄断的危险品仓库资源是第二道护城河，核心海关、园区仓库资源的多寡决定企业的成长空间；安全、专业、高效的运营构成行业第三道护城河，对风险敏感的国企和安全体系不成熟的民企扩张意愿不强，能将安全、专业、高效运营平衡好的企业才有机会脱颖而出。目前行业格局非常分散，2021-2022年头部百强企业营收占比仅7.04%，但集中度提升的趋势已经明朗。◆ 成长路径：整合核心仓库聚拢流量，仓、运、代、销多渠道变现被政策催熟的需求缩短了供给整合的窗口期，永泰运作为行业龙头迎来量价齐升的机会。中短期以量增驱动成长，永泰运将链条中最稀缺的仓作为流量整合的抓手，其危险品仓库布局从华东延伸至华北，从沿海扩张到内陆，拓区域、扩品类双管齐下。中长期则以价增驱动成长，仓库业务导流至陆运、货代、分销等环节强化变现能力，单位盈利有望保持增长趋势。◆ 投资建议 ：低估值高增长的成长股机会，首次覆盖给予“买入”评级我们预计永泰运2023-2025年营业收入分别为27.66亿元、37.52亿元与46.31亿元，归母净利润分别为2.53亿元、3.42亿元与4.31亿元，2023-2025年对应PE分别为16.80倍、12.45倍与9.87倍。鉴于公司经营良好，盈利能力稳步提升，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。◆ 风险提示：需求不及预期、生产事故、整合并购不及预期、测算误差、重大政策变动、海外市场风险及汇率风险核心观点请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和免责声明4一、华东危险品供应链领先者，商业模式快速复制带来高增长······················································1.1 成长历程:从化工货代到跨境化工物流供应链服务的领先者·······················································1.2 商业模式:围绕核心危险品仓库资源提供一体化供应链服务······················································1.3 业务布局:港区仓库为根基，立足华东辐射内陆·····································································1.4 收入:跨境供应链服务为主业，成本加成定价········································································1.5 成本:轻资产运营，运力采购成本为主，周期波动明显····························································1.6 盈利:量价齐升，利润高速增长··························································································1.7 股权结构·····················································································································1.8 管理层························································································································二、需求：7900亿元空间持续扩张，市场分层“消费升级”························································2.1 危险品概念来自海外，覆盖原油化工、新材料、新能源多个行业··············································2.2 市场空间:自上而下算，3PL市场规模预计将达到1.11万亿元·····················································2.3 需求驱动|内贸:化工行业快速发展，浙江势头强劲·································································2.4 需求被催熟，市场分层，“消费升级”···························