银行业研究框架及2022A+2023Q1业绩综述：哪些银行业绩有望率先改善？

银行研究框架及2022A+2023Q1业绩综述：哪些银行业绩有望率先改善？——如何看财务报表、经营情况、识别风险2023年05月03日证券分析师：马婷婷执业证书编号：S0680519040001证券分析师：蒋江松媛执业证书编号： S0680519090001二零二三年五月证券研究报告行业深度 诚信|担当|包容|共赢上市银行2023Q1业绩概览2023Q1上市银行整体营收、利润增速分别较2022A提升0.7pc、下降5.2pc至1.4%、2.4%（营收增速提升，主要是其他非息收入增速较高，或与新保险合同准则于2023年1月1日开始实施，保险收入确认原则、保险合同负债计量等方面有所调整，五大行22Q1收入数据相应重述有关）。拆分来看：1）利息净收入：2023Q1共计23家披露息差数据，整体较22A收窄14bps至1.80%，主要受到23Q1按揭重定价的影响，息差承压使得利息净收入增速下降至-1.8%（较2022A下降4.8pc）。2）手续费及佣金收入： 上市银行整体收入增速较2022A下滑2pc至-4.8%。其中股份行手续费及佣金收入占比相对较高（18.4%），收入增速下降至-13.8%。3）资产质量：上市银行整体不良率（1.27%），较2022A下降0.03pc，拨备覆盖率（245%），提升3.7pc。4）拨备计提：资产质量相对稳健的情况下，拨备同比少提6.6%，支撑归母净利润同比增长2.4%。图表1：上市银行2023Q1业绩情况营收PPOP利润营收PPOP利润利息净收入手续费及佣金其他非息收入资产减值损失利息净收入手续费及佣金工商银行-1.1%-5.5%0.01%+1.5pc-1.9pc-3.5pc11.2%-1.0pc-4.8%-2.9%62.0%-8.2%-5.2pc--20.0%+1.2pc1.38%------214%+4.1pc2.94%+0.04pc建设银行1.0%0.6%0.3%+1.2pc+2.4pc-6.8pc12.9%-1.2pc-4.1%2.6%209.0%-0.5%-10.3pc+7pc20.8%+0.4pc1.38%------242%+0.1pc3.33%-0.01pc农业银行2.2%1.1%1.8%+1.5pc+3.3pc-5.7pc12.6%-0.9pc-3.5%2.8%316.7%6.9%-5.6pc+2pc24.5%+0.6pc1.37%------303%--4.12%-0.04pc中国银行11.6%8.7%0.5%+9.5pc+6.6pc-4.5pc11.1%-0.9pc7.0%-0.8%78.3%11.3%-1.3pc+10pc24.6%-1.6pc1.18%-0.14pc----203% +13.8pc2.38%-0.12pc交通银行5.5%3.2%5.6%+4.2pc+4.6pc+0.4pc11.5%-0.2pc-4.4%-7.7%87.8%0.3%-9.5pc-2pc29.8%+0.5pc1.34%-0.01pc1.45%+0.01pc183%+2.6pc2.43%-0.01pc邮储银行3.5%-5.7%5.2%-1.6pc-4.6pc-6.7pc14.4%-0.5pc1.0%27.5%-2.6%-25.7%-0.6pc-2pc55.9%+4.1pc0.82%-0.02pc0.55%-0.01pc381%-4.4pc3.13%-0.13pc招商银行-1.5%-3.9%7.8%-5.6pc-7.7pc-7.3pc18.4%-0.8pc1.7%-12.6%14.9%-23.7%-5.3pc-12pc27.6%+1.5pc0.95%-0.01pc1.12%-0.10pc448%-2.5pc4.27%-0.05pc中信银行-4.9%-8.8%10.3%-8.3pc-10.4pc-1.3pc13.9%+0.3pc-0.9%-11.5%-16.6%-25.8%-2.7pc-15pc27.6%+3.0pc1.21%-0.06pc----209%+7.7pc2.54%-0.01pc浦发银行-3.8%-5.3%-18.3%-2.6pc-1.5pc-14.9pc10.2%+6.9pc-12.0%-10.6%43.4%8.5%-10.4pc-9pc24.2%+0.9pc1.52%--2.15%-0.04pc161%+1.7pc2.44%+0.02pc民生银行0.4%-2.4%3.7% +16.0pc+21.9pc+1.1pc11.1%-0.1pc-7.9%8.9%50.5%-10.9%+6.7pc+35pc27.0%+0.9pc1.60%-0.08pc2.76%-0.13pc144%+1.6pc2.30%-0.09pc兴业银行-6.7%-7.3%-8.9%-7.2pc-2.7pc-19.4pc14.9%-3.1pc-6.2%-42.5%48.2%-4.4%-5.9pc-48pc25.5%+0.4pc1.09%--1.44%-0.05pc233%-3.6pc2.53%-0.05pc光大银行-1.6%-1.0%5.3%-0.8pc--+2.1pc10.5%-0.1pc-1.8%-5.0%9.0%-8.4%-3.2pc-3pc24.3%-0.5pc1.25%------188%+0.2pc2.35%--华夏银行-3.7%-3.5%4.1%-1.5pc+0.3pc-2.3pc7.5%-0.3pc-6.3%-30.8%52.7%-9.7%+0.3pc-43pc28.3%-0.1pc1.73%-0.02pc2.77%-0.02pc162%+2.3pc2.81%--平安银行-2.4%-2.0%13.6%-8.6pc-9.4pc-11.6pc13.6%-0.5pc0.5%-0.1%-23.7%-16.5%-7.6pc+9pc26.2%--1.05%--1.75%-0.07pc290%+0.1pc3.05%+0.01pc浙商银行2.5%-4.8%9.9%-9.6pc-14.0pc+2.2pc16.0%+0.5pc2.2%12.3%-1.1%-28.6%-10.0pc-6pc28.8%+5.1pc1.44%-0.03pc----183%+0.7pc2.63%-0.05pc北京银行-6.9%-13.3%1.9%-6.9pc-11.5pc-9.5pc12.8%-0.6pc-3.4%-53.1%45.7%-37.9%-3.5pc-71pc27.4%+4.8pc1.36%-0.07pc----217%+7.0pc2.96%-0.04pc南京银行5.5%3.1%8.2%-3.5pc-4.8pc-7.9pc16.8%-0.8pc4.8%-42.3%35.0%-8.9%+5.3pc-34pc25.4%+1.6pc0.90%+0.01pc0.86%+0.02pc392%-4.8pc3.52%-0.05pc宁波银行8.5%6.4%15.3%-1.2pc-2.4pc-2.7pc16.9%+0.3pc8.0%2.9%12.1%-12.9%-6.8pc+13pc33.7%+1.1pc0.76%+0.01pc0.54%-0.04pc501%-3.4pc3.79%+0.01pc上海银行-7.1%-10.5%3