医药行业2022年年终投资策略报告：低点已过，后疫情时代医药板块有望轻装上阵焕发新生

医药行业2022年年终投资策略报告华西医药团队证券分析师：崔文亮 SAC NO: S1120519110002华西医药团队（崔文亮、王帅、徐顺利、支君、王睿、陈晨、程仲瑶、孙子豪、吴晟昊、曹艳凯、查星辰）【团队荣誉】2015-2017年新财富第5、3、6名2022年10月28日低点已过，后疫情时代医药板块有望轻装上阵焕发新生请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明证券研究报告核心观点：低点已过，后疫情时代医药板块有望轻装上阵焕发新生1整体观点：我们看好医药板块四季度及2023年行情，行业低点已过，四底共振，医药行业有望实现困境反转焕发新生。1、持仓底：医药持仓持续新低。2022年Q3公募基金重仓医药行业的比例为9.37%，环比减少1.16pct，如果扣除主动医药基金及指数基金，重仓比例为5.19%，环比减少0.75pct。2、估值底：远低于历史平均估值。2012年初至今，医药行业PE最高87倍，最低25倍，平均值约42倍，目前医药行业PE分位数为12.5%，远低于历史平均估值。3、政策对行业冲击底：集采已经实施了4年，对相关行业及公司影响已经基本体现在业绩上。相关子行业及公司基本面和业绩已经见底，未来有望轻装上阵重拾增长。4、政策预期底：政策缓和趋势明显。近期国内政策利好频现，政策边际改善显著2目录01 医药行业回顾与展望02 细分板块回顾与受益标的 2.1.创新药及制剂 2.2.CXO 2.3.医疗器械&耗材 2.4.疫苗&生物制品 2.5.中药 2.6.医疗服务 2.7.零售药店03 风险提示3表：重点推荐公司盈利预测（收盘价市值对应时间：2022/10/28）*港股股价为港元；港股标的归母利润、EPS、PE单位为人民币；汇率：1元港币=0.9219元人民币资料来源：wind（2022/10/28），华西证券研究所重点推荐公司行业代码股票简称股价（元） 市值（亿元）收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）EPS（摊薄）PE2021A2022E2023E2024E2021A2022E2023E2024E2021A2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E创新药及制剂600276.SH恒瑞医药38.952,484.62259.06225257.00300.0045.3043.4452.6465.550.710.680.831.03574738688235.SH百济神州119.101,262.7175.8988.09141.50213.82-97.48-87.65-77.11-59.87-8.08-6.52-5.73-4.45---002653.SZ海思科22.40240.9427.7330.6737.3545.013.452.855.026.990.320.270.470.658348342096.HK先声药业8.78232.4050.5362.0075.0094.0015.078.8112.5117.090.580.330.470.65271914603676.SH卫信康14.9665.1010.3414.7320.1726.490.961.912.914.090.230.440.670.94342216301263.SZ泰恩康31.9575.536.548.6111.1313.871.202.193.274.450.680.931.381.88342317688658.SH悦康药业18.6181.9049.6649.6957.7164.975.455.467.199.061.211.211.602.0115129CXO603259.SH药明康德78.392,248.51229.02392.25433.74542.4850.9797.61103.62136.891.733.303.504.62242217688202.SH美迪西224.54195.1611.6719.9630.9646.012.824.867.5211.214.555.598.6512.90402617603127.SH昭衍新药61.10297.5015.1722.5632.0941.705.579.2512.6816.081.501.732.373.00352620603456.SH九洲药业36.30302.8340.6357.4977.40101.406.349.3112.9017.880.761.121.552.14322317688621.SH阳光诺和99.4379.544.947.2210.3214.441.061.652.393.321.512.072.994.14483324301096.SZ百诚医药77.1583.453.746.559.1812.651.112.093.024.111.371.932.793.80402820300363.SZ博腾股份44.19240.5631.0565.6655.3268.165.2418.2614.4417.950.973.352.653.30131713002821.SZ凯莱英149.87535.9446.39104.65118.65147.5210.6936.7230.4232.124.399.938.228.68151817688238.SH和元生物21.95108.252.553.455.287.670.540.701.011.440.140.140.200.2915711076医疗器械300003.SZ乐普医疗25.32479.31106.6096.06109.36127.3117.1921.4224.5229.140.951.131.301.54221916603309.SH维力医疗20.7060.7411.1914.1117.8022.631.061.602.162.810.410.550.740.96382822603301.SH振德医疗45.97122.4950.9257.4264.1573.115.967.038.079.152.632.643.033.44171513688212.SH澳华内镜70.8494.463.474.516.8010.210.570.480.891.40.550.360.671.0519710667688139.SH海尔生物75.56239.5821.2629.1036.7847.838.455.918.210.792.661.862.583.40412922疫苗603392.SH万泰生物129.991,177.8057.50120.54174.34215.5520.2149.0675.2196.853.335.578.5411.00231512300122.SZ智飞生物84.891,358.24306.52308.10404.86532.88102.0972.0897.48125.456.384.516.097.84191411688276.SH百克生物64.52266.3612.0216.0523.9028.602.444.856.828.190.621.181.651.98553933688319.SH欧林生物15.0360.914.876.419.1711.451.081.282.13