石化行业25年-26Q1总结：中东冲突成行业焦点，地缘风险推升景气

2026/5/51受地缘冲突扰动，2026年Q1国际原油价格中枢显著抬升，原油均价同比、环比双双上行，价格波动幅度有所放大。上游龙头企业享受高油价红利，板块整体盈利水平同比、环比大幅改善，经营质量持续优化。3市场行情45资料来源： Wind，国金证券研究所19.1%3.8%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2026/1/12026/1/32026/1/52026/1/72026/1/92026/1/112026/1/132026/1/152026/1/172026/1/192026/1/212026/1/232026/1/252026/1/272026/1/292026/1/312026/2/22026/2/42026/2/62026/2/82026/2/102026/2/122026/2/142026/2/162026/2/182026/2/202026/2/222026/2/242026/2/262026/2/282026/3/22026/3/42026/3/62026/3/82026/3/102026/3/122026/3/142026/3/162026/3/182026/3/202026/3/222026/3/242026/3/262026/3/282026/3/302026/4/12026/4/32026/4/52026/4/72026/4/92026/4/112026/4/132026/4/152026/4/172026/4/192026/4/212026/4/232026/4/252026/4/272026/4/29油气资源指数石油天然气指数油气开采服务指数炼油化工指数聚酯指数烯烃指数6资料来源： Wind，国金证券研究所分板块概述78资料来源：EIA，Wind，国金证券研究所66.9 74.4 75.2 67.9 63.3 69.0 62.2 63.3 50.2 29.7 43.1 44.3 61.2 69.1 73.7 79.9 102.4 114.1 101.0 89.0 81.3 78.2 86.9 84.5 83.4 85.2 80.5 74.9 75.8 68.0 69.3 64.0 81.4 020406080100120布伦特原油季度均价（美元/桶）1,1001,1501,2001,2501,3001,3501月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月 11月 12月20262025202420232022-8-6-4-20246859095100105110115库存变化（百万桶/天，右轴）总供给总需求但从油公司常用的EV/PV-10油气储量估值来看，9资料来源：Bloomberg， Wind，国金证券研究所代码名称P/E 2024P/E 2025P/E 2026EV/EBITDA2024EV/EBITDA2025EV/EBITDA2026PBCOP US Equity康菲石油15.8819.7813.377.246.645.402.33OXY US Equity西方石油22.5628.0112.847.296.785.542.13DVN US Equity戴文能源10.5012.619.295.185.223.392.04PXD US Equity先锋能源12.9811.2012.037.156.256.592.67EOG US EquityEOG资源11.9213.719.336.206.624.932.50ONGC IN Equity印度油气6.137.799.114.785.745.891.10PETR4 BZ Equity巴西石油12.256.404.714.454.393.371.52PTTEP TB Equity泰国国家能源8.469.958.713.073.212.921.16OMV AV Equity奥地利OMV10.8810.377.974.354.483.791.23纯油气标的平均12.4013.319.715.525.484.651.85XOM US Equity埃克森美孚19.6222.1014.8210.399.837.602.49CVX US Equity雪佛龙22.7726.7614.6911.3410.346.832.04TTE FP Equity道达尔集团11.6913.229.065.756.324.711.62BP/ LN EquityBP公司16.9116.088.905.784.903.922.15SHEL LN Equity壳牌11.7914.249.634.835.354.431.46ENI IM Equity埃尼17.3915.579.645.805.664.611.48EQNR NO Equity挪威石油13.0716.568.502.742.912.102.47REP SM Equity西班牙雷普索尔12.529.506.366.754.904.451.09ARAMCO AB Equity沙特阿美16.6017.9915.297.848.337.274.50综合性油公司平均15.8216.8910.776.806.515.102.15COP US Equity康菲石油15.8819.7813.377.246.645.402.33OXY US Equity西方石油22.5628.0112.847.296.785.542.13DVN US Equity戴文能源10.5012.619.295.185.223.392.04PXD US Equity先锋能源12.9811.2012.037.156.256.592.67EOG US EquityEOG资源11.9213.719.336.206.624.932.50XOM US Equity埃克森美孚19.6222.1014.8210.399.837.602.49CVX US Equity雪佛龙22.7726.7614.6911.3410.346.832.04美国上市油公司平均16.6019.1712.347.837.385.752.32TTE FP Equity道达尔集团11.6913.229.065.756.324.711.62BP/ LN EquityBP公司16.9116.088.905.784.903.922.15SHEL LN Equity壳牌11.7914.249.634.835.354.431.46ENI IM Equity埃尼17.3915.579.645.805.664.611.48EQNR NO Equity挪威石油13.0716.568.502.742.912.102.47OMV AV Equity奥地利OMV10.8810.377.974.354.483.791.23REP SM Equity西班牙雷普索尔12.529.506.366.754.904.451.09欧洲上市油公司平均13.4613.658.585.144.934.001.64600938.SH中国海油13.7915.5612.026.506.925.