野村_中国：消费疲软与投资大跌致四季度增长放缓

5ERHUIiApVfXbZ7NbPaQsQpPmOtNkPpPpOeRnMxO7NnMpRvPnMoMNZtOqNNOAIURAAsia InsightsGlobal Markets Research19 January 2026China:Q4growthslowed onweak consumptionResearch Analystsandplummeting investmentAsia EconomicsThe NBS just released Q4 GDP and December activity data. Real GDP growth slowed toTing Lu - NIHK4.5% y-0-y in Q4 (Consensus: 4.5; Nomura: 4.3%) from 4.8% in Q3. Thanks to a smallerting.lu@normura.comdeflation numiber, nominal GDP growth edged up to 3.8% y-o-y in Q4 from 3.7% in Q3,+852 2252 1306Jing Wang - NIHKwith the implied GDP deflator rising to -0.7% y-0-y in Q4 frorn -1.1% in Q3. For December,[Iing-wang@ncmura.comindustrial production (IP) growth increased to 5.2% y-o-y from 4.8% in November due+852 2252 1011largoly to faster export growih at 6.6% y-o-y in Decomber. As expocted, retail sales growthHarrington Zhang - NIHKslowed further to only O.9% y-o-y in December from 1.3% in November as the paybackeffect of the “trade-in program" worsened. Fixed asset investment (FAl) growth slumpedharrington.zheng@rnomur9.com+852 2252 2057further to -16.0% y-o-y in December from -11.1% in November, led by the property sectorHannah Liu - NIHKs -36.3% y-0-y crash. We note that manufacturing FAl growth dropped further to -10.5% inhanrah.lu@ncmuna.comDecember from -4.5% in November.+882 2252 1082For the whole year, Beijing exactly reached its 5.0% growth target. However, the quarterly2025. Even though the deeply negative headline FAl growth data might be partially due tosome over-reporting in 2024 and underreporting in 2025, w still believe decline in FAlwas driven by the dowward spiral of the property sector, the fiscal challenges of localgrowth could continue in coming months, and it appears the worst is yet to come, asfrom -14.2% in Docomber 2025).evidenced by the -32. 0% y-0-y collapse of passonger car sales on f-1f January (downWe believe Bejing has bocome incroasingly concornod about one of the worst domesticdemand slowdowns in this century. On 9 January, the Stafe Counci issued a momofollowing a regular meeting. pledging to implement a new round of fiscal and financialinterest rates on all structural and re-lending faciities by 25bp and raisec the re-lendingquota for some of its faiities. Still, we believe these policies measures are far fromenough to stabilize growth and Beijing vill have to do much more in coming months todeliver an annual GDP growth rate above 4.5% in 2025. As Beijing runs out of εasilyimplemented policy tools, policymakers may need more time to prepare morecomprehensive measures. Meanwhile, the current enthusiasm in stock markets mightdissuade Beijing from acting, as policymakers fear stimulus measures could fuel a stockbubble. We expect Bejing to focus on using fiscal policy to bolster demand in the shortterm and maintain our forecast for a 10bp rate cut and one 50bp RRR cut in Q2 2026.Bejing may also introduce some measures, such as subsicies on new mortgage loans,though rmarkets sill need to be patient for a comprehensiv