国际清算银行-环境因素和流向新兴市场的资本（英）

BIS Working Papers No 1308 Environmental factors and capital flows to emerging markets by Jose Aurazo, Rafael Guerra, Pablo Tomasini, Alexandre Tombini and Christian Upper Monetary and Economic Department November 2025 JEL classification: F21, F23, F64. Keywords: environmental factors, capital flows, emerging markets, energy mix. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the BIS or its member central banks. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2025. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Environmental factors and capital flows to EMEs 1 Environmental factors and capital flows to emerging markets Jose Aurazo, Rafael Guerra, Pablo Tomasini, Alexandre Tombini and Christian Upper1 Abstract This paper examines the impact of environmental factors on international capital flows – specifically portfolio, bank, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows – to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using two complementary approaches, we first analyse how recipient country factors influence capital flows for 21 EMEs, finding that EMEs with lower exposure to extreme weather events, a greener energy mix, more and stronger climate-related policies tend to attract greater capital inflows. Second, using bilateral data for FDI and bank flows, we explore the role of sending country factors (advanced economies, AEs) in determining capital inflows to EMEs. The results suggest that stricter environmental regulations in AEs lead to increased capital inflows to EMEs with weaker green regulations. This suggests an “emission shifting” effect. At the same time, though, they also route more investment to EMEs with a greener energy mix. These findings underscore the significance of environmental factors in shaping international capital flows. Keywords: environmental factors, capital flows, emerging markets, energy mix. JEL classification: F21, F23, F64. 1 Jose Aurazo is a Visiting Economist at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). Rafael Guerra is Senior Macroeconomics Analyst and Pablo Tomasini is Macroeconomic Analysts at the BIS. Alexandre Tombini is the Chief Representative at the BIS Americas Office. Christian Upper is a Senior Adviser at the BIS. We thank Galina Hale for a very useful discussion and Jon Frost, Benoit Mojon and seminar participants at the BIS for their invaluable comments. The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily ref