欧洲央行-边走边谈？绿色政治家和污染模式（英）

Working Paper Series Walking the talk? Green politicians and pollution patterns Michael Koetter, Alexander Popov Disclaimer: This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. No 3155 AbstractExploiting three decades of detailed regional data for Germany, we find that whenthe Green Party is successful at the polls, local hazardous emissions decline. The level ofpolitical representation matters, too. Green politicians’ gaining influence at county levelis followed largely by a decline in air pollutants that have an immediate adverse healtheffect. In contrast, when the Green party joins the state government, only greenhousegas emissions that affect the welfare of future generations via climate change decline.The primary mechanism to achieve lower emissions appears to be a reduction in output,rather than more efficient energy use.JEL classification: D72, Q53Keywords: Elections, hazardous emissions, growthECB Working Paper Series No 31551Non-technical summaryClimate change is a global challenge that society expects to be addressed by electedpoliticians, primarily those with an explicit environmental agenda. But do these ”walk thetalk” once elected? Theory suggests that the answer is far from clear. Acting to reduceindustrial pollutants that have immediate adverse effects on human health is an example oflocal politicians dealing with an environmental issue that is in line with local preferences.In contrast, reducing emissions that contribute to slow-moving climate change but have noimmediate health effects via policies that burden consumers and firms may not be in the bestinterest of the local constituency. Rational local politicians voted into office with a ”green”agenda may therefore abandon or at a minimum dilute their initial sustainability objectives.We mobilize three decades (1990–2018) of hand-collected data on the electoral perfor-mance of the Green Party across 542 counties and 16 federal states in Germany. Germanyis a perfect laboratory to answer the question whether stronger revealed green preferencesspur a green transformation, for three reasons. First, voters’ environmental preferences mapclearly into party representation, with environmental politics being the Green party’s centraltheme since its foundation in 1980. Second, the available data makes it possible to observe ata granular level in an industrialized emissions-intensive economic structure not only electionresults, but also various pollution patterns. We split the latter into those that represent animmediate health hazard (Total Suspended Particulates (TSP), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sul-phur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)) and those responsible for long-term climatechange (carbon dioxide (CO2)). Third, the federal structure of German politics with partyrepresentation at various levels of government helps us better isolate whether, and