IMF-诊断预期在开放经济中的重要性（英）

The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies Selim Elekdag, Mananirina Razafitsiory, Luis-Felipe Zanna WP/25/246 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV * The authors would like to thank Andy Berg, Thomas Carter, Gabriel Devoto, Pau Rabanal for their thoughtful comments, and IrelaAleman and Jose Caceres for research and editorial assistance.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/246IMF Working Paper Institute of Capacity Development The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies Prepared by Selim Elekdag, Mananirina Razafitsiory, and Luis-Felipe Zanna* Authorized for distribution by Andy Berg November 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: We develop and estimate a parsimonious New-Keynesian small open-economy model that incorporates Diagnostic Expectations (DE)—a behavioral alternative to Rational Expectations (RE). Under DE, agents systematically overreact to new information, generating additional endogenous volatility. Our empirical analysis provides robust support for the DE framework: it fits Canadian data significantly better than the nested RE benchmark and improves forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP growth, even during crises such as the Global Financial Crisis. These gains arise because DE reshapes the transmission of shocks, amplifying their effects and strengthening the exchange-rate channel of monetary policy. As a result, the relative importance of structural shocks shifts—with greater roles for supply shocks—and policymakers face a meaningfully worse inflation–output volatility trade-off. Taken together, our results highlight the relevance of behavioral expectations for open-economy dynamics and policy design. JEL Classification Numbers: E52; F41; D84 Keywords: Small Open Economy; Diagnostic Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Forecasting Author’s E-Mail Address: SElekdag@imf.org; mananirina.razafitsiory.1@ulaval.ca; FZanna@imf.org WORKING PAPERS The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies Prepared by Selim Elekdag, Mananirina Razafitsiory, and Luis-Felipe Zanna IMF WORKING PAPERS The Importance of Diagnostic Expectations in Open Economies INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2 Contents I. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 4II. An Open Economy Model with Diagnostic Expectations ...............................................