2025 Autumn AI（英）

Benedict Evans –– December 2020AI eats the worldBenedict Evans November 2025 www.ben-evans.comBenedict Evans –– November 20252The next platform shiftEvery 10-15 years, a platform shift reshapes technology PCsMainframesWebSmartphonesGenerative AIBenedict Evans –– November 20253Who is affected, and how much?What happens in a platform shift?The New Thing! All tech innovation, investment and company creation switches overInside tech New gatekeepers, new value capture New and bigger markers Outside tech Is this a new tool, new revenue, or an existential threat?Benedict Evans –– November 20254Source: Apple, Google, GartnerMicrosoft OS share of global computer unit salesMicrosoft dominated the PC era, but when the centre of gravity shifted to smartphones it became irrelevant Dominance is won and lost 0%25%50%75%100%19751980198519901995200020052010201520202025Benedict Evans –– November 20255Source: GartnerGlobal PC unit sales shareThe ‘first’ was not the winner in PCs, browsers, search, social or smartphonesEarly leaders often disappear 0%25%50%75%100%197519801985199019952000AppleAll othersIBM-compatibleBenedict Evans –– November 20256For every new platform, we forget how many ideas failed and how unclear everything wasHow will the new thing work? We don’t knowInternet AOL, Yahoo, Pointcast, Flash, plugins, portals… Sun? Netscape?Mobile internet i-mode, J2ME, WAP, mesh, DVB-H, keyboards… Nokia? RIM?Generative AI? Browsers? Agentic? Voice? MCP? Wearables? GEO? Benedict Evans –– November 20257When things are exciting, people get excited Noise, hype, anti-hypeBenedict Evans –– November 20258This often brings bubblesPeople draw straight lines on log scale charts They forget that exponential growth is generally an exponential curve And always say “this is different” The trouble is, they’re generally right - every bubble is different! But it can still be a bubbleBenedict Evans –– November 20259Source: Rosenfeld HCMSTUS heterosexual couples who met online, by year of meetingThe internet has gone from the New Thing to a basic part of daily lifeBut when the dust settles, the world has changed 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%199520002005201020152020Benedict Evans –– November 202510SaaS means the typical large enterprise in the USA now uses 4-500 appsNew platforms mean new tools (and new revenue)Mainframes One appPCs Dozens of appsSaaS 4-500 apps*LLMs What can we automate next?*Source: ProductivBenedict Evans –– November 202511One way this platform shift is different, thoughFor PCs, the web or smartphones, we knew the physical limits of what could happen next year With LLMs, we don’t know how much better this could get “The race to AGI is afoot” Sergey Brin “AGI needs multiple further breakthroughs” Demis HassabisBenedict Evans –– November 202512Another platform shift, or more?We know this will get better, but we don’t know how muchPCsMainframesWebSmartphones?Generative AIBenedict Evans –– November 202513How will this work?How will this be usefu