水资源短缺经济学（英）

Policy Research Working Paper11261The Economics of Water ScarcityJon FrostCarlos Madeira Serafín Martínez Jaramillo Finance, Competitiveness and Investment Global DepartmentNovember 2025 A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 11261In many countries around the world, water scarcity could become a macroeconomically relevant concern. As a key input into production processes (agriculture, power gen-eration, and industrial use) and a common good, water resources risk being overexploited. Regressions with panel data for 169 countries between 1990 and 2020 show that, while water use is positively correlated with output, higher water scarcity is associated with lower gross domestic prod-uct growth and investment, and higher inflation. In contrast, water use efficiency is associated with higher gross domestic product growth and lower inflation. Climate scenarios show risks of much more severe water shortages in the future, threatening its sustainable use. This could impose higher costs on individual sectors and on the economy, reducing output and pushing up prices. Water availability and use could thus become an area for economists and central banks to monitor in the context of climate change, economic forecasting and monetary policy. This paper is a product of the Finance, Competitiveness and Investment Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at jon.frost@bis.org, cmadeira@bcentral.cl, smartinezjaramil@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available at http://reproducibility.worldbank.org, click here for direct access. POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPERSTRANSPARENTANALYSIS The economics of water scarcity 1 The economics of water scarcity Jon Frost, Carlos Madeira and Serafín Martínez Jaramillo1