IMF-稳定支出规则在促进宏观财政稳定中的作用：来自波兰的模拟证据（英）

The Role of a Stabilizing Expenditure Rule in Fostering Macro-Fiscal Stability Simulation-Based Evidence from Poland Andrzej Torój, Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Rafał Chmura, Kareem Ismail, Dominika Kroschel, W. Raphael Lam, Agnieszka Szczypińska, Bartłomiej Wiśnicki WP/25/238 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2025 NOV * “The author(s) would like to thank” footnote, as applicable.© 2025 International Monetary Fund WP/25/238IMF Working Paper European Department The Role of a Stabilizing Expenditure Rule in Fostering Macro-Fiscal Stability: Simulation-Based Evidence from Poland* Prepared by Andrzej Torój, Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Rafał Chmura, Kareem Ismail, Dominika Kroschel, W. Raphael Lam, Agnieszka Szczypińska, Bartłomiej Wiśnicki Authorized for distribution by Geoff Gottlieb November 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: The paper investigates the properties of Poland’s Stabilizing Expenditure Rule (SER) in the context of economic governance reform in the EU. The analysis uses a granular macroeconometric model (Chmura et al., 2024) that incorporates heterogeneous fiscal multipliers across expenditure items and endogenous tax bases. This novelty supports emprically-grounded simulations to analyze the impact of adverse shocks on output, fiscal balances, and debt dynamics, including through the binding expenditure rules and potential shifts in the composition of expenditures. Our results show that the SER generally ensures lower fiscal deficits (and debt path) than policies that only target the compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) thresholds. This is because of the inherent corrective mechanism built in the SER that requires a tightening of fiscal stance when rules are breached. The SER is shown to have counter-cyclical properties, although the extent depends also on the parameters in the correction mechanism. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Torój, Andrzej, Joanna Bęza-Bojanowska, Rafał Chmura, Kareem Ismail, Dominika Kroschel, W. Raphael Lam, Agnieszka Szczypińska, Bartłomiej Wiśnicki . 2025. “The Role of a Stabilizing Expenditure Rule in Fostering Macro-Fiscal Stability: Simulations-based Evidence from Poland”, IMF Working Paper No.25/XX, Washington, D.C. JEL Classification Numbers: C53, E17, E62, H60 Keywords: Fiscal Rules; Debt Sustainability; Stabilizing Expenditure Rule; Poland; Econometric Model * The authors are very grateful for the inputs and comments from Hassan Adan, Gosta Ljungman, Tjeerd Tim, and Jan Kees Martijn.IM