2025Q3点评：行业拐点已现

1 指标2023A2024A2025E2026E2027E营业收入（百万元）1,1521,3261,8252,5273,462增速（%）25.53%15.02%37.66%38.50%36.98%归母净利润（百万元）110104230321432增速（%）38.67%-5.26%120.02%39.83%34.30%每股收益（元）0.400.380.841.171.57市盈率（倍）180.61190.6586.6561.9746.14 iFinD iFinD iFinD -300%-200%-100%0%100%200%300%(2)02468101214202020212022202320242025Q3营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）营收同比增速（右轴）净利同比增速（右轴）-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%2019202020212022202320242025Q3毛利率净利率2025Q32025Q22025Q12024Q42024Q32024Q22024Q12023Q4营业收入(百万元)494440227533223357212411营业成本(百万元)270242143359150194127213销售费用率8.6%6.0%9.2%6.6%9.4%4.8%10.0%4.8%管理费用率4.3%6.5%10.7%4.5%14.0%8.7%15.5%8.2%财务费用率1.3%-0.1%1.5%0.7%3.1%-0.6%0.8%1.6%研发费用率11.7%10.8%34.2%4.5%35.4%15.0%25.7%11.6%资产减值损失(百万元)23.5613.181.3224.234.410.812.9813.81利润总额(百万元)84103-30 69-40 67-8 80所得税费用(百万元)512-15 11-17 -2 -9 8归母净利润（百万元）7991-15 58-23 68172扣非归母净利（百万元）6670-27 42-41 50-14 60EPS（元）0.290.34-0.060.21-0.080.250.000.37毛利率45.2%44.9%36.9%32.7%33.1%45.7%40.1%48.1%期间费用率25.9%23.3%55.6%16.3%61.8%28.0%52.0%26.1%所得税率5.7%11.2%50.3%16.0%42.7%-2.6%112.7%10.3%净利润率16.1%20.7%-6.6%10.9%-10.2%19.1%0.5%17.5%iFinD 资产负债表利润表会计年度2022202320242025E2026E2027E会计年度2022202320242025E2026E2027E货币资金262.113160.721185.79182.47252.73346.20营业收入918.081152.451325.571824.742527.283461.96应收票据及账款704.20974.451146.241681.962290.413079.44营业成本417.27608.44829.34999.501408.541951.20预付账款24.7524.1945.0074.9990.01104.33税金及附加5.8612.9210.1010.0415.1619.39其他应收款24.2627.7321.7830.0034.6237.94销售费用69.5675.1894.37127.73171.86238.88存货539.01557.04827.39985.811369.951871.01管理费用221.01150.96119.22145.98204.71283.88其他流动资产54.3219.751046.75858.39775.06699.36研发费用162.57183.47211.30273.71353.82450.06流动资产总计1608.654763.884272.963813.624812.786138.28财务费用10.0225.0410.1326.8022.5934.55长期股权投资22.4825.8733.2633.2633.2633.26资产减值损失-15.80 -19.87 -32.43 -18.25 -25.27 -34.62 固定资产1022.941094.061507.912319.332225.802069.60信用减值损失-15.78 -24.61 -22.51 -18.25 -25.27 -34.62 在建工程164.73340.251042.28200.00200.00200.00其他经营损益-0.00 -0.00 0.000.000.000.00无形资产91.22174.81248.59248.83282.39299.30投资收益0.824.0045.844.972.461.54长期待摊费用6.653.427.083.540.000.00公允价值变动损益-3.07 -0.77 6.690.000.000.00其他非流动资产114.89123.40173.61230.00227.00218.00资产处置收益0.220.070.160.000.000.00非流动资产合计1422.921761.813012.733034.952968.452820.15其他收益60.3049.7939.6850.6760.6470.64资产总计3031.576525.697285.696848.567781.238958.43营业利润58.48105.0688.54260.12363.16486.96短期借款412.17609.92504.1647.15416.90810.43营业外收入0.290.530.321.002.103.50应付票据及账款495.24514.29991.24985.811292.771742.71营业外支出2.293.910.710.010.140.11其他流动负债257.64258.41357.53300.40400.61517.74其他非经营损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00流动负债合计1165.061382.621852.931333.352110.283070.89利润总额56.48101.6888.15261.11365.12490.35长期借款113.55183.03393.18316.44230.26136.80所得税-23.02 -8.55 -16.28 31.3343.8158.84其他非流动负债223.59221.76221.64220.00237.00245.00净利润79.50110.24104.44229.78321.31431.51非流动负债合计337.13404.79614.83536.44467.26381.80少数股东损益0.000.000.000.000.000.00负债合计1502.191787.412467.751869.792577.543452.68归属母公司股东净利润79.50110.24104.44229.78321.31431.51股本113.11192.29271.77271.77271.7727