IMF-增强税收能力：加强税收管理带来的收入收益（英）

2025 OCT Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, Manabu Nose WP/25/219 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. * The authors are indebted to Supriyo De, Elizabeth Gavin, Michael Hardy, Miguel Pecho, and Frank Van Brunschot, whose activeparticipation in constructing the novel indices measuring tax administration strength was invaluable. We also thank the experts whopiloted the first version of the Tax Administration Yield and Assessment Tool (TAYAT) in eight countries and provided valuablefeedback that helped refine the indices, including Doris Akol, Jean-Marc Atsebi, Supriyo De, Tim Fraser, Michael Hardy, VincentKoukpaizan, Lucilla McLaughlin, Elizabeth Meyo, Norris Miller, Cindy Negus, Paulo Paz, Jim Sorensen, Frank Van Brunschot, andGraham Whyte. We are also grateful to Seydou Coulibaly, Elizabeth Gavin, Michael Hardy, Emmanuel Lartey, Huy Nguyen, EzgiOzturk, Charles Vellutini, and the participants of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department seminar and Senior Staff Meeting for theirinsightful comments and suggestions. We are also grateful to Vishal Parmar for research assistance and to Dánea Trejo Carcamofor editorial support. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the IMF, itsExecutive Board, or management.© 2025 International Monetary Fund [WP/25/219 IMF Working Paper Fiscal Affairs Department Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration Prepared by Jean-Marc Atsebi, Nikolay Gueorguiev, and Manabu Nose* Authorized for distribution by Nikolay Gueorguiev October 2025 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Building on previous studies, we propose a robust estimation strategy to uncover the causal effects of tax administration strength on tax revenue in 121 countries over the period 2014–2022. Our novel approach utilizes a unique expert survey to construct an Operational Strength Index of tax administration, using the International Survey on Revenue Administration (ISORA), and employs an instrumental variable strategy based on the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Capacity Development programs. We find that strengthening tax administration significantly boosts tax revenue, particularly in emerging and developing economies, and especially in countries with lower levels of informality, stronger institutions, and higher financial development. These findings carry important policy implicat