从太空追踪跨国公司气候行动-利用卫星监测和气候信息披露评估供应链政策的测量框架（英）

Tracking Multinational Corporate Climate Action from SpaceA Measurement Framework for Evaluating Supply Chain Policies using Satellite Monitoring and Climate DisclosuresKARISHMA V. PATELThis document was submitted as a dissertation in September 2025 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Frederick S. Pardee Ph.D. in Policy Analysis at the RAND School of Public Policy. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Robert J. Lempert (chair), Tobias Sytsma, Jonathan W. Welburn, and Steven Strongin. This dissertation was supported by Wolf and Cazier dissertation fellowships.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RGSDA4499-1.About the RAND School of Public PolicyThe RAND School of Public Policy has specialized in graduate-level policy education since its founding in 1970. The RAND School is home to the Frederick S. Pardee Ph.D. in Policy Analysis, which is the original public policy Ph.D. program in the United States and the only Ph.D. program based at an independent public policy research organization. To learn more about the RAND School of Public Policy, visit www.rand.edu.Published in 2025 by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. is a registered trademark. ii Abstract In 2016, multinational companies (MNCs) and their supply chains were responsible for nearly a fifth of global carbon emissions (Zhang et al., 2020). Since then, policies made by MNCs have emerged with explicit language aimed at mitigating the climate consequences of global business models. Among those with these voluntary policies, a majority of MNCs have emphasized the importance of prioritizing supply chain emissions in their decarbonization plans (Standard Chartered, 2025; Amazon, 2024; SBTI, 2024). Because these voluntary corporate policies are emerging as a primary source of action-oriented rules to affect climate change, my dissertation develops a quantitative framework, combining dynamic difference-in-difference and network analysis techniques, to analyze how supply chain policies for climate change mitigation have manifested among MNCs, how their impacts have migrated across borders, and whether they are effective. Results show these policies are correlated with structural changes in the supply chain, uncertain effects on supplier emissions, and varying impacts on the local atmosphere. Statistically significant reductions in atmospheric CO2 in advanced economies with high innovation capacity imply these policies can lead to positive impacts in some contexts, but increases in medium- and low-capacity countries suggest issues in selection and carbon leakage simultaneously arise. The satellite-based analysis also shows how the atmospheric stabilization necessary for climate change mitigation depends on persistent and comprehensive anthropogenic emissions reductions. This demonstrates the need for scaling new and permanent low-carbon technology acros