IMF-立陶宛的发展模式：立陶宛共和国（英）

The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso SIP/2025/139IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/259. 2025 OCT © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/139 IMF Selected Issues Paper European Department The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania, Republic of Lithuania Prepared by Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso* Authorized for distribution by Kazuko Shirono October 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 29, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/259. ABSTRACT: Lithuania has seen strong income convergence since regaining independence, but in recent years progress in this respect has stalled as the contribution of capital deepening and TFP growth to labor productivity growth became lackluster. Persisting constraints faced by firms, such as lack of access to credit, low spending in R&D and limited availability of workers with sufficient digital skills, explain low rates of corporate investment, productivity and innovation. Looking ahead, targeted structural reforms are essential to support a lasting recovery in labor productivity growth. Key structural reforms include changes in labor market and education needed to reduce skill mismatches and improve labor quality, reforms in the financial sector allowing for deeper capital markets, and reforms aimed at accelerating to transition to a digitalized economy and a more comprehensive AI preparedness. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Armendariz, S. and A. Musso, 2025, “The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania.” IMF Selected Issues Paper 2025/139. JEL Classification Numbers: O10, O14, O40, P11 Keywords: Growth, Productivity, AI, Structural Reforms, Lithuania Author’s E-Mail Address: SArmendariz@imf.org, AMusso2@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS The Evolving Growth Model of Lithuania Republic of Lithuania Prepared by Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso1 1 The authors would like to thank Kazuko Shirono and experts from the Bank of Lithuania for very helpful comments and Sadhna Naik and Kofi Zhou for excellent research assistance. REPUBLIC OF LITHUANIA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By European Department Prepared By Saioa Armendariz and Alberto Musso THE EVOLVING GROWTH MODEL OF LITHUANIA A. Introduction _________________________________________________________________________ 2 B. Output Convergence and Transformation ____________________________________________ 3 C. Structural Impediments to Growth ___________________________________________________ 4 D. The Potential Benefits of AI __________________________________________________________ 5 E.