联合国西亚经济社会委员会-衡量经济韧性（英）

Measuring economic resilience E/ESCWA/CL6.GCP/2025/TP.6 Measuring economic resilience United Nations Beirut iii Acknowledgements iv v Key messages • • • • vi vii Contents Acknowledgements iii Key messages v Introduction 1 1. Resilience and development 3 2. Framework 7 A. Guiding principles 7 B. Defining economic resilience 7 C. Vulnerabilities 8 D. Coping capacities 10 3. Data sources and methodology 15 4. Main results 21 Conclusion 27 References 29 List of figures Figure 1. Economic Resilience Index framework 8 Figure 2. Recovery versus adaptation: two pathways to resilient development 11 Figure 3. Economic Resilience Index score categories 19 Figure 4. The most resilient and vulnerable economies in 2023 21 Figure 5. Economic Resilience Index scores by region: coping capacities and vulnerabilities, 2023 22 Figure 6. Economic Resilience Index scores by income group: coping capacities and vulnerabilities, 2023 23 Figure 7. Correlation between Economic Resilience Index score and GDP per capita, 2023 24 Figure 8. Correlation between coping capacities and vulnerabilities indices, 2023 25 viii Introduction 2 3 1. Resilience and development 1. Martin, 2012. 2. Rose, 2007. 3. Masten and others, 1990; O’Dougherty Wright and others, 2014. 4. Folke and others, 2010; Simmie and Martin, 2010; Davoudi and others, 2012. 5. Martin and Sunley, 2015. 6. Duval and Vogel, 2008; Sánchez and Nicoletti, 2016; Sutherland and Hoeller, 2014. 7. Martin 2012; Briguglio, 2016. 8. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) 2016; UNDP 2012; UNDP, 2015; World Bank, 2018a; IMF, 2020; Caribbean Development Bank, 2019; OECD, 2020. 9. Spratt and Bernini 2016; FM Global, 2025; Stockholm Resilience Center, 2015. 10. World Bank, 2016. 4 Economic resilience, defined by various organizations and scholars “... is decomposed into two components: instantaneous resilience, which is the ability to limit the magnitude of the immediate loss of income for a given amount of capital losses, and dynamic resilience, which is the ability to reconstruct and recover quickly...” – The World Bank (2016) “… encompasses the ability to minimise potential vulnerabilities, to promote more robust and inclusive growth, to enhance the capacity of the macro-economy to withstand shocks and reallocate resources to harness new growth opportunities. “ - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2014) “... the policy-induced ability of an economy to withstand or recover from the negative impacts of shocks” – Briguglio and others (2009) 11. OECD, 2014. 12. United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, 2017; United Nations, 2021. 13. FAO 2016; Food Security Information Network, 2016. 14. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2022; United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015. 15. Briguglio, 2016. 16. UNDP, 2013; Aldrich 2012; Manyena, 2014. 17. IMF, 2019. 18. Briguglio, 2009; Briguglio, 2016. 19. United Nations, 2021. 5 20. Early 1990s recession,