美联储-区域演化的衰退形态：滞后因素（英）

Finance and Economics Discussion SeriesFederal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.ISSN 1936-2854 (Print)ISSN 2767-3898 (Online)Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factors of HysteresisHie Joo Ahn and Yunjong Eo2025-062Please cite this paper as:Ahn, Hie Joo, and Yunjong Eo (2025). “Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution: Factorsof Hysteresis,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-062. Washington: Board ofGovernors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2025.062.NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminarymaterials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forthare those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or theBoard of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other thanacknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers.Recession Shapes of Regional Evolution:Factors of Hysteresis*Hie Joo Ahn†Federal Reserve BoardYunjong Eo ‡Korea UniversityJuly 28, 2025AbstractThis paper empirically investigates sources of hysteresis, focusing on downward nominalwage rigidity and the gender gap in the labor market, using U.S. state-level payroll employ-ment data. Employing a Bayesian Markov-switching model of business cycles, we identifyU-shaped and L-shaped recessions, which correspond to quick recoveries and hysteresis,respectively. Both U-shaped and L-shaped recessions are driven by supply and demandshocks; however, U-shaped recessions are associated with recessionary shocks that raiselabor productivity, whereas L-shaped recessions are also driven by shocks that reduce laborproductivity. Following L-shaped recessions, recoveries in employment, output, and laborproductivity are sluggish and accompanied by declining inflation. In contrast, U-shapedrecoveries feature stronger rebounds without significant changes in inflation. Greater down-ward nominal wage rigidity and a larger gender employment gap both increase the likelihoodof L-shaped recessions and hysteresis. Downward nominal wage rigidity enhances the ef-fectiveness of both expansionary monetary and tax policies. While expansionary monetarypolicy becomes more effective with a larger gender gap, the effectiveness of tax cuts remainsunaffected.JEL classification: C22; C51; E32; E37.Keywords: Hysteresis, Regional business cycles; L-shaped recession; U-shaped recession;Wage rigidity; Gender employment gap; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy.*We thank Travis Berge, Joonkyu Choi, Masao Fukui, Francesco Furlanetto, Manuel González-Astudillo, JamesHamilton, Yoon Joo Jo, Antoine Lepetit, Michael McCracken, Raven Molloy, Emi Nakamura, Hannah Rubinton,Jeremy Rudd, Choongryul Yang and seminar participants at the Bank of Finland, the Federal Reserve Board, theRegional Conference of the Federal Reserve System, the Hitotsubashi Summer Institute, and Norg