美联储-扩大劳动力市场视角：两个新的欧元区劳动力指标（英）

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemInternational Finance Discussion PapersISSN 1073-2500 (Print)ISSN 2767-4509 (Online)Number 1415August 2025Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor IndicatorsEce Fisgin, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Alex Haag, and Mitch LottPlease cite this paper as:Fisgin, Ece, Joaquin Garcia-Cabo, Alex Haag, and Mitch Lott (2025).“Expanding theLabor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone Labor Indicators,” International Finance Dis-cussion Papers 1415.Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,https://doi.org/10.17016/IFDP.2025.1415.NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDPs) are preliminary materials circulated to stimu-late discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors anddo not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. Referencesin publications to the International Finance Discussion Papers Series (other than acknowledgement) shouldbe cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Recent IFDPs are availableon the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from theSocial Science Research Network electronic library at www.ssrn.com.Expanding the Labor Market Lens: Two New Eurozone LaborIndicators∗Ece Fisgin †Joaquin Garcia-Cabo ‡Alex Haag§Mitch Lott¶July 31, 2025AbstractWe present a principal component analysis of euro area labor market conditions by combininginformation from 22 labor market indicators into two comprehensive series. These two novelindicators provide a systematic view of the current state and forward-looking direction ofthe euro-area labor market, respectively, and demonstrate superior forecasting performancecompared to existing indicators.Crucially, we find significant implications for monetarypolicy design: a local projection analysis reveals that ECB monetary policy shocks haveattenuated effects on both inflation and unemployment when the labor market forward-looking indicator is high. The dampened inflation response calls for tighter policy rate pathsthan a standard Taylor rule would prescribe. Finally, we show that focusing solely on theofficial unemployment rate may understate the actual labor market slack, and consequently,the trade-off between labor market health and inflationary dynamics.JEL Classification: E24, E27, J63Keywords: employment, unemployment, labor market forecasting, european labor markets∗The views expressed in this paper are solely our responsibility and should not be interpreted as reflectingthe views of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or of any other person associated with theFederal Reserve System. We are extremely grateful to Arpita Chaterjee, ´Etienne Gagnon, Nils Goernemann, andparticipants at the AFE/EME Brownbag at the International Finance Division in the Federal Reserve Board fortheir comments and suggestions.†Division of International Finance, Federal