亚开行-2025年亚洲发展展望（英）

HIGHLIGHTS „ Developing Asia’s growth forecasts have been downgraded from projections in April to 4.7% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026. Growth in the region accelerated in  the first quarter of 2025 thanks to solid domestic demand and pre-tariff front-loading of exports, but higher tariffs and global trade uncertainty are expected to dampen momentum going forward. „ Rising trade uncertainty also weighs on Southeast Asia’s growth outlook, prompting the largest downward revisions among subregions to 4.2% for 2025 and 4.3% for 2026. „ The growth forecast for East Asia in 2025 is revised down, to 4.3%, and to 5.9% in South Asia, amid weaker trade prospects due to the US tariff hikes, while the 2026 growth forecasts remain 4.0% and 6.2%, respectively. „ Growth for the Pacific is still forecast at 3.9% for 2025 but revised down to 3.5% for 2026, reflecting expected softening in visitor arrivals. „ The growth forecast for the Caucasus and Central Asia is raised to 5.5% for 2025 and 5.1% for 2026, from 5.4% and 5.0%, reflecting stronger activity in Kazakhstan, supported by robust oil production. „ Disinflation in developing Asia is expected to continue, with headline inflation forecast to ease to 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, amid stronger agricultural output and lower oil prices. „ Higher US tariffs and trade uncertainty are the main risks for the region’s outlook. Renewed geopolitical tensions and a faster deterioration in the PRC’s property market could also weaken regional growth.The recent developments section was written by Shiela Camingue-Romance under the guidance of Abdul Abiad, John Beirne, and Matteo Lanzafame of the Economic Research and Development Impact Department (ERDI). The Asian Development Bank Regional Economic Outlook Task Force led the preparation of the revised subregional outlook. The task force is chaired by ERDI and includes representatives of the Central and West Asia Department, East Asia Department, Pacific Department, South Asia Department, and Southeast Asia Department. ADB placed on hold its regular assistance to Afghanistan effective 15 August 2021. Effective 1 February 2021, ADB placed a temporary hold on sovereign project disbursements and new contracts in Myanmar.J U LY 2 0 2 5ASIAN DEVELOPMENT OUTLOOKSLOWER GROWTH AMID TARIFFS AND UNCERTAINTYDeveloping Asia’s outlook has worsened since the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), as trade and other risks loom large. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the region accelerated in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, underpinned by resilient consumption and front-loading of exports as firms anticipated tariff hikes in Q2 in the United States (US). Disinflation continued, as food and oil prices declined. Despite these positive developments in Q1, developing Asia’s growth projections for both 2025 and 2026 have been downgraded compared with forecasts in the April 2025 ADO due to expectations of a more challenging external environment and weaker domestic demand. Downside ris