牛津经济研究院-澳大利亚保险气候脆弱性评估的经济情景（英）

ECONOMIC SCENARIOS FOR AUSTRALIA’S INSURANCE CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT A project for the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority on behalf of the Council of Financial RegulatorsMarch 20252March 2025DisclaimerAll data shown in tables and charts are Oxford Economics Australia’s own data, except where otherwise stated and cited in footnotes, and are copyright © Oxford Economics Australia.The modelling and results presented here are based on information provided by third parties, upon which Oxford Economics Australia has relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith. Any subsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown.To discuss the report please contact:Kristian Kolding: kkolding@oxfordeconomics.comOxford Economics AustraliaLevel 6, 95 Pitt Street, Sydney, 2000, NSWDelayed transition scenario assumes global annual emissions continueto increase until 2030 when strong emissions mitigation policies to limit warmingto below 2°C by 2050 are implemented.Executive summary3Two NGFS aligned macroeconomic scenarios were modelled as part of the Insurance Climate Vulnerability Assessment and compared to a counterfactual scenario where there’s no further increase in temperatures or transition policy action.1 Current Policies scenario assumes that emissions continue to rise due to the lack of mitigating policies beyond what is currently implemented. Global warming reaches 2.5 °C by 2050 with an increasing frequency of extreme weather events representing a tail-risk view of the NGFS CPS scenario2 1.Consistent with the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), the counterfactual scenario provides a baseline of no additional physical or transition climate risks, and no further climate adaptation, to 2050. This provides a baseline against which climate impacts of the Current Policies and Delayed Transition scenarios can be compared.. 2.The Current Policies scenario takes a tail-risk view of global average temperature increase and associated climate peril risk, and includes a temperature volatility damage function. Global GHG emission levels are consistent with the original NGFS scenario.High transition costs increasing significantly from 2030Limited physical peril increasing at a lower rate over the forecast periodNo additional transition costs as no further emission policies are implementedHigh physical peril increases significantly over the forecast period Higher emission prices from 2030 weigh on economic activity before the transition related investment takes holdEmission intensive sectors such as coal and gas mining, manufacturing and livestock farming face the greatest challengesQLD and NT’s exposure to coal mining and livestock agriculture put them at a disadvantageThe increasing prevalence of extreme weather reduces the productive capacity of the Australian economy over timeCapital intensive industries such as agriculture, transport and manufacturing face the biggest declines in acti