IMF-加强巴布亚新几内亚基于规则的财政框架：巴布亚新几内亚（英）

Strengthening The Rules-Based Fiscal Framework in Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Yue Zhou and Bryn Welham SIP/2025/084IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/135. 2025 JUN © 2025 International Monetary Fund SIP/2025/084 IMF Selected Issues Paper Asia and Pacific Department Strengthening The Rules-Based Fiscal Framework in Papua New Guinea Prepared by Yue Zhou and Bryn Welham* Authorized for distribution by Nir Klein June 2025 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 28, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/135. ABSTRACT: Papua New Guinea’s public debt has increased significantly in recent years, leading to a high risk of debt distress and exposing significant gaps in the existing fiscal setting. This paper proposes to strengthen the authorities’ fiscal framework by introducing a clear public debt anchor and a primary balance rule. Specifically, we consider setting the medium-term debt anchor at between 30 and 40 percent of GDP to ensure that the debt limit of 60 percent is not breached under most scenarios, and using the primary balance as an operational policy instrument to facilitate the convergence of public debt to its anchor. RECOMMENDED CITATION: Bryn Welham, Yue Zhou. 2025. Strengthening The Rules-Based Fiscal Framework in Papua New Guinea. IMF Selected Issues Paper SIP/2025/084 JEL Classification Numbers: E27, H30, H50, H61, H63 Keywords: [Type Here] Public debt, debt anchor, fiscal rule, Papua New Guinea Author’s E-Mail Address: YZhou4@imf.org, BWelham@imf.org SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Strengthening The Rules-Based Fiscal Framework in Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Prepared by Yue Zhou and Bryn Welham1 1 The author(s) would like to thank the extensive guidance and comments by Thomas Helbling, Nir Klein, Fabien Gonguet, Miguel Ricaurte, and voluntary comments from both FAD and SPR. © 2025 International Monetary Fund IMF Country Report No. 25/135 PAPUA NEW GUINEA SELECTED ISSUES This paper on Papua New Guinea was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on May 28, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org Web: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. June 2025 PAPUA NEW GUINEA SELECTED ISSUES Approved By A