韩国央行-开放经济中的人口结构变化与实际利率：以韩国为例（英）

2025. 6No. 2025-12Demographic Shifts and the Real Interest Rate in an Open Economy: The Case of KoreaJae Won Lee, Woong Yong Park, Seolwoong Hwang.2KQ;`T?B+ a?B7ib M/ i?2 _2HAMi2`2bi _i2 BM M PT2M 1+QMQKvh?2 *b2 Q7 EQ`2C2 qQM G22 ∗  qQQM; uQM; S`F ∗∗  a2QHrQQM; >rM; ∗∗∗The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the officialviews of the Bank of Korea When reporting or citing this paper the authorsʇ names shouldalways be explicitly stated∗ 1+QMQKB+ _2b2`+? AMbiBimi2 "MF Q7 EQ`2 M/ .2T`iK2Mi Q7 1+QMQKB+b a2QmH LiBQMHlMBp2`bBiv 1KBH jwlee7@bok.or.kr M/ jwlee7@snu.ac.kr∗∗ .2T`iK2Mi Q7 1+QMQKB+b a2QmH LiBQMH lMBp2`bBiv 1KBH woongyong.park@snu.ac.kr∗∗∗ 1+QMQKB+ _2b2`+? AMbiBimi2 "MF Q7 EQ`2 1KBH hsw@bok.or.krq2 i?MF CQM;b2QF >M CQQMvQmM; >m` >vmM/Q CQQ uQM;bmM; *?M; M/ amM; >rMa?BM 7Q` i?2B` pHm#H2 +QKK2Mib M/ /Bb+mbbBQMb b r2HH b i?2 b2KBM` T`iB+BTMib i a2QmHLiBQMH lMBp2`bBiv i?2 kykj MMmH J22iBM; Q7 EQ`2ʇb HHB2/ 1+QMQKB+ bbQ+BiBQMbuQMb2B lMBp2`bBiv M/ i?2 "MF Q7 EQ`2 q2 `2 HbQ ;`i27mH iQ i?2 MQMvKQmb `2pB2r2`b7Q` i?2B` +QMbi`m+iBp2 722/#+F*QMi2MibAAMi`Q/m+iBQM xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx RAA PT2M 1+QMQKv GB72@+v+H2 JQ/2H xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 3AAA S`K2i2` a2iiBM; M/ JQ/2H aQHmiBQMb xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx kRAo _2bmHib xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx k3o *QM+HmbBQM xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 99_272`2M+2b xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9e JQ/2H 1[miBQMb xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 9N" S`K2i2` a2iiBM; xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 8k.2KQ;`T?B+ a?B7ib M/ i?2 _2H AMi2`2bi _i2 BMM PT2M 1+QMQKv h?2 *b2 Q7 EQ`2This study investigates the impact of demographic changes on real interest ratedynamics in Korea We develop an open-economy life-cycle model that incorporatesKoreaʇs high degree of external openness to analyze historical trends and producelong-term projections of the real interest rate The model successfully explains Ko-reaʇs higher real interest rates relative to advanced economies since the 1990s as wellas the downward trend observed over time Our findings highlight two key demo-graphic forcesʄrising life expectancy and declining fertilityʄas major contributorsto this decline albeit with different magnitudes and duration of impact These resultsunderscore the importance of demographic trends in shaping long-term interest ratetrajectories and provide implications for macroeconomic policy and fiscal planningKeywords Population Aging Demographic Change Real Interest Rate Life Ex-pectancy Fertility Rates Borrowing Constraints Life-cycle modelJEL Classification C68 E21 E22 F21 F32 F41 J11R"PE qQ`FBM; ST2` LQ kyk8@RkAAMi`Q/m+iBQMh?2 `2H BMi2`2bi `i2 Bb QM2 Q7 i?2 KQbi 7mM/K2MiH T`B+2b BM KQ