英文【高盛】中国必需消费品：5月检查及消费品公司日总结：政策波动与通缩下渠道转变的崎岖之路

We hosted multiple staple companies at our Consumer & Leisure Corporate Day and performed channel checks in the past weeks. We are seeing a bumpy road of demand recovery and still largely slow 2Q-to-date run-rates across staples sub-sectors, esp. for spirits, beer, and dairy. Recent policy tightening in alcohol consumption by government officers and civil servants amid upcoming peak season are a key downside risk and will likely impact on-trade consumption sentiment (e.g., high-end catering/spirits) in next few months. Meanwhile, visibility on resilience in profitability from continued cost deflation and agile investment remains solid. YTD the emerging channel shifts across instant shopping, discounter channels etc. have been in highlight due to the strong growth yoy, though the absolute topline contribution is still very small in for the Staples universe in our view. QTD run-rate - Still lackluster demand recovery in 2Q to date: Overall, we observed unexciting retail performance in 2Q to date amid still conservative spending sentiment for multiple staples goods e.g. spirits (yoy declines for upper mid end) and dairy (retail sequentially weakening vs. LNY at MSD% decline in March-April). We note divergent performance across brands for beer in May but on-trade generally remains weak (CRB/Tsingtao +ve; Bud -ve in May). The bright spot including Beverage volume momentum remained quite solid but also a bit mixed across brands on base comp and product cycle (Nongfu/Eastroc +dd%). We also noted pressure on pricing trends: Dairy started offering value-for-money products in basic milk to digest excessive milk as raw milk price has declined HSD to teens% YTD providing a cost buffer; Beer ASP has stabilized into 2Q with rising premiumization in the in-home channel, but we are still closely monitoring the unfavorable channel mix. Key downside surprise: Policy changes a swing factor for alcohol consumption: Both spirits and beer companies have seen some near-term headwinds to consumption sentiment from the recent policy tightening on anti-extravagance for party and gov’t agencies, stating that cigarettes, alcoholic drinks and high-end dishes are not allowed to be served during working meals in working days, esp. adding Leaf Liu +852-3966-4169 | leaf.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Valerie Zhou +852-2978-0820 | valerie.zhou@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Hongda Zhong +852-2978-2300 | hongda.zhong@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Julia Mu +852-2978-1219 | julia.mu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Christina Liu +852-2978-6983 | christina.liu@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.China Consumer Staples: May Check In and Consumer Corp. Day Wrap: A bumpy road with policy swings, channel shift amid deflation11 June 2025 | 12:11AM HKT Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.