世界银行-失业发展（英）

Policy Research Working Paper10928Jobless DevelopmentFranziska OhnsorgeRichard RogersonZoe Leiyu XieSouth Asia RegionOffice of the Chief EconomistSeptember 2024 Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure AuthorizedProduced by the Research Support TeamAbstractThe Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent.Policy Research Working Paper 10928Analyses of GDP per capita differences across countries focus almost exclusively on differences in productivity. This paper shows that there are also large differences in medi-um-run dynamics in the employment-to-population ratio. The paper finds a general tendency for productivity growth to be negatively correlated with changes in the employment to population ratio for a large sample of EMDEs—a phe-nomenon described using the term jobless development in this paper. The paper also shows that there are large differences in the steady state levels of the employment to population ratios that countries are converging to. There are also countries that experience substantial increases in their employment-to-population ratio during the development process. Using a two-stage procedure, the paper studies this issue in a large sample of EMDEs. In the first stage, the paper estimates differences in steady-state employment ratios across countries. In the second stage, it documents which institutional and policy factors are correlated with steady-state employment ratios. The paper finds particularly large differences across countries in steady-state employ-ment ratios for women. Fewer legal protections of women’s rights are associated with lower steady-state employment ratios for women, without an offsetting positive effect for men.This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, South Asia Region. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at lxie@worldbank.org.Jobless Development* Franziska Ohnsorgea,b , Richard Rogersonc,d, and Zoe Leiyu Xieaa World Bank, Washington DC, USA b CEPR, London, UK; CAMA, Canberra, Australia c Princeton School of Public and International Affairs d National Bur