Barclays_Global_Portfolio_Manager_s_Digest_Certainly_Uncertain

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision.* This individual is a member of the Product Management Group and is not a Research AnalystAll research referenced herein has been previously published. You can view the full reports,including analyst certifications and other required disclosures, by clicking the hyperlinks in thispublication or by going to our Research portal on Barclays Live.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 33.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 33.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 34.Global Portfolio Manager's DigestCertainly UncertainWe provide context and perspective on research across regionsand asset classes, this week providing our updated views onglobal energy amidst great uncertainty; assessing the downsiderisks to Big Tech valuations in the context of increased capitalintensity; and examining behavioral healthcare from a thematiclens.• Global Energy in an Uncertain World: Global oil inventories stand well below the five-yearaverage and there has been a wave of selling pressure as measured by managed moneypositions, reflecting concerns over a slowdown in the wider economy pushing 2025 balancesinto surplus and a consequent debate on how OPEC+ will respond. With this in mind, we seeunprecedented uncertainty across each of the oil, natural gas and refining markets,particularly in oil where the debate is over whether weak demand growth is a function ofcyclical or structural factors. Reflecting this uncertainty, we moved the oil prices used in ourmodels to $70/bl for 2025 and $75/bl for 2026. Our new macro assumptions imply little, oreven negative growth (depending on asset mix) in the environment for 2025. This lack offinancial momentum is often a challenge in attracting new money to the sector, even withwhat remains deep value on offer across many companies. To that end, we see investorsfocusing on companies with strategic and operational momentum. As such, we highlightedstocks we see as offering both value and momentum into 2025 across Europe Integrated Oil,US Integrated Oil and E&P, US Midstream & Refiners, and Europe & US Energy Services.• Potential Headwinds for Big Tech: Big Tech earnings growth looks increasingly capitalinten