Deutsche Bank-DBDaily Oil up on escalation of mid east tension-110564354

2 October 2024Deutsche BankResearch Global Economics DBDaily Date Oil up on escalation of mid east tensionUSA: Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Revised up 0.3pts to 47.3.USA: ISM manufacturing (Sep): Unchanged at 47.2pts. USA: JOLTS job openings (Aug): Up 4.3% mom to 8.04m, above mkt.EMU: Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Revised up 0.2pts to 45.EMU: HICP (Sep): Down 0.1% mom, up 1.8% yoy. JPN: Jobless rate (Aug): Down 0.2pps to 2.5%, below mkt.JPN: Tankan (Q3): Large manufacturing unchanged at 13pts, above mkt. JPN: Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Revised up 0.1pts to 49.7. AUS: Retail sales (Aug): Up 0.7% mom, above mkt.***ECB change in call. Mark Wall now expects a 25bp cut from the ECB in October (previously no change). The shift in view comes after softer than expected inflation prints for September. Beyond October, Mark's baseline assumes back to back 25bp until rates are reduced to neutral, 2-2.5%, by mid-2025. If recent weaker growth and inflation trends continue, a 50bp cut in December is possible.***RBNZ change in call: We now expect a 50bp cut from the RBNZ next week (previously no change), with another 50bp cut in November. Plunging price pressures evident in NZ's QSBO survey released yesterday make a compelling case for proactive policy easing. Our base case delivers a total of 125bps of easing from the RBNZ this year, vs DB's base case of 100bps from the Fed.***Webinar replay: Adrian Cox with five clues to the future of AI. 30 minutes, here.US equities were weaker Tuesday, S&P down 0.9%. US10yr yields down 5bps, 2yrs down 9bps and oil up 4.1%. The moves follow an escalation in mid east tensions after an Iranian missile attack on Israel. US manufacturing ISM missed, steady at 47.2 in September, consensus looked for a 0.3pt gain. Employment down 2.1pts, but new orders up 1.5pts. Mixed JOLTs. US job openings beat: Up 329k in August, but private quit rate fell 0.2ppts to 2.1%, lowest since May 2020.Eurozone CPI missed slightly, headline down 0.1%mom, consensus looked for a Phil OdonaghoeEconomist+61-2-8258-1606Deutsche Bank AG/SydneyIMPORTANT RESEARCH DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. UNTIL 19th MARCH 2021 INCOMPLETE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLAYED, PLEASE SEE APPENDIX 1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.Oil up on escalation of mid east tensionDistributed on: 01/10/2024 21:54:11 GMT7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa2 October 2024DBDailyPage 2Deutsche Bank AG/Sydneyflat print. But year-ended in line at 1.8%. Core also in line at 2.7%yoy, down from 2.8%yoy in August. Manufacturing PMIs revised up, still weak. US manufacturing PMI revised up 0.3pts to 47.3 in final print for September. Still down 0.6pts from August, and lowest since June last year. Eurozone manufacturing PMI also revised up 0.2pts to 45. Still down 0.8pts from August, and lowest level since December last year.ECB's Rehn: sees "more grounds" for cutting rates in October.Australia retail sales beat, up 0.7%mom with a small upward revision to the month prior. Statistician highl