国际清算银行-后疫情时代的生产力：旧趋势还是新路径？（英）-9份

BIS Bulletin No 93 Productivity in the post-pandemic world: old trend or new path? Deniz Igan, Tom Rosewall and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul 3 October 2024 BIS Bulletins are written by staff members of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. The authors are grateful to Adam Cap and Emese Kuruc for excellent analysis and research assistance, to Douglas Araujo, Claudio Borio, Jon Frost, Gaston Gelos, Benoît Mojon, Hyun Song Shin, Christian Upper, Phil Wooldridge and Fabrizio Zampolli for their valuable comments and to Nicola Faessler for administrative support. The editor of the BIS Bulletin series is Hyun Song Shin. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2024. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN: 2708-0420 (online) ISBN: 978-92-9259-793-1 (online) BIS Bulletin 1 Deniz IganDeniz.Igan@bis.orgTom RosewallTom.Rosewall@bis.orgPhurichai RungcharoenkitkulPhurichai.Rungcharoenkitkul@bis.orgProductivity in the post-pandemic world: old trend or new path? Productivity growth is a key variable of interest for central banks. It influences inflation and is the most important determinant of long-run growth in real income. Recently, subdued productivity growth in many countries (with the notable exception of the United States) has raised concerns about the underlying drivers across countries. What explains subdued productivity growth? Why is the United States different? Do the recent patterns reflect conjunctural factors that should fade over time or do they indicate structural forces that would prevail in the coming years? This Bulletin documents the evolution of labour productivity growth across countries since the pandemic and relates it to conjunctural and structural forces. It concludes with a discussion of policy implications. Evolution of productivity since the pandemic Three stylised facts summarise recent developments in labour productivity, as measured by GDP per hour worked. First, labour productivity increased in all countries during the Covid-19 recession (Graph 1.A). For most countries, this countercyclical pattern is unusual because productivity typically falls in recessions (Graph 1.B). While the degree of procyclicality declined in recent decades, it flipped sign in only a few cases (Graph 1.C). The United States is an exception, since countercyclicality has been the norm there (Fernald and Wang (2016)). Second, once lockdowns were lifted and economic activity recovered, labour productivity fell back. It is now generally below the level implied by pre-pandemic trends. The exception is again the United States, where the current level is above the