电子行业周报：iPhone16定档9月10日，三折叠手机大战即将打响

S 2024ᒪ 09ᴾ 01ᰛ iPhone16ᇐẙ 9ᴾ 10ᰛθпᣎਖᢁᵰཝᡎ঩ሼᢉଃ Ă⭫ᆆ㺂ѐઞᣛ ᧞㦆( 㔪ᤷ) ᣋ䍺㾷⛯ ࠼᷆ᐾφ∑↙ S1050521120001 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn ࠼᷆ᐾφੋউ䱩 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 㺂ѐ⴮ሯ㺞⧦ 㺞⧦ 1M 3M 12M ⭫ᆆ( ⭩н) - 5.6 - 1.2 - 10.2 ⋠␧ 300 - 2.9 - 7.2 - 12.4 ᐸ൰㺞⧦ 䍺ᯏᶛⓆφWindθ঄䪡䇷࡮⹊ガ ⴮ީ⹊ガ 1 ȽɅ⭫ᆆ㺂ѐઞᣛφ㤯᷒ iPhone16ਇᐹՐ঩ሼᶛѪθ唇ᛕグᑜࣞ⑮ᡅ⺢Ԭ䬶䠅Ɇ2024- 08- 25 2 ȽɅ⭫ᆆ㺂ѐઞᣛφཝসࣖ䙕ᐹቶAIᲰ㜳⵲䮒θ᱕䰠㚊ⴕ੥ࣞ䐞૷⢂ӈ㚊ӈ䙐⎁䈋Ɇ2024- 08- 19 3 ȽɅ⭫ᆆ㺂ѐઞᣛφп᱕ੜ䇚ެHBM3E䙐䗽㤧Օ䗴ᡶᴿ⎁䈋θㅢпԙঀሲ։ 8㤧ሮᰬԙࣖ䙕Ɇ2024- 08-1 ȇрઞഔ亴 8ᴾ 26ᰛ- 8ᴾ 30ᰛᖉઞθ⭩нж㓝㺂ѐᲤ䚃༺ӄр⏞Ⲻ⣬ᘷȾެѣ⭫ᆆ㺂ѐр⏞ 3.3%θփࡍㅢ 3փȾզٲࢃпⲺ㺂ѐѰ㔲ਾȽള䱨ߑᐛȽ⭫ᆆθ⭫ᆆ㺂ѐᐸ⳾⦽Ѱ 43.61Ⱦ ⭫ᆆ㺂ѐ㓼࠼ᶵඍ∊䖹θ8ᴾ 26ᰛ- 8ᴾ 30ᰛᖉઞθཝ䜞࠼⭫ᆆ㺂ѐ㓼࠼ᶵඍ༺ӄс䐂ᘷࣵȾެѣθެԌ⭫ᆆȽঀሲ։䇴༽Ƚ㻡ࣞݹԬ⏞ᑻᴶཝȾզٲᯯ䶘θᮦᆍ㣥⡽䇴䇗Ƚঀሲ։ᶆᯏȽ⁗ᤕ㣥⡽䇴䇗զٲ≪ᒩփࡍࢃпθLEDȽݿᆜݹԬզٲᧈ੃ᵢઞㅢ഑ȽӊփȾ ȇ iPhone16ᇐẙ 9 ᴾ 10ᰛਇᐹ 㤯᷒↙ᕅᇎᇙሼӄ्Ӣᰬ䰪 9ᴾ 10ᰛࠂᲞѴ㺂⢯ࡡ⍱ࣞθਇᐹ iPhone 16㌱ࡍȽAple WatchȽAirPodsㅿж㌱ࡍ᯦૷ȾṯᦤⴤࢃᴓݿⲺؗᚥᶛⵁθiPhone 16䘏жԙᴶཝⲺ䶟᯦ᶛ㠠ޞ᯦Ⲻ A18㌱ࡍ㣥⡽ȾA18ሼ䟽⭞ਦ〥⭫ㅢӂԙ 3nm N3EⲺᐛ㢰ᢉ䙖θ⴮∊ৱᒪ A17 ProⲺ N3Bᐛ㢰θN3EՐ൞㜳᭾∊рᴿ∊䖹ཝⲺᨆॽȾੂᰬѰҼᓊሯ Aple Inteligenceㄥםᑮ傱Ⲻ 3B㿺⁗Ⲻ⁗ශθ㤯᷒ҕ俌⅗ሼ iPhone 16ૂiPhone 16 PlusⲺ䘆㺂޻ᆎδRAMεᨆॽࡦҼ 8GBȾਜжᯯ䶘θᦤ჈։ᣛ䚉ഖৱᒪ൞দᓜ㓺㻻⭕ӝⲺ iPhone 15䚣ࡦ䘶䍝θ㻡䘡ཝᑻ䲃ԭθԀᒪ㤯᷒ᐨሼ䜞࠼ӝ㜳䖢ഔѣളཝ䱼ԙᐛসȾᔰ䇤ީ⌞φ㄁䇥㋴ᇼȽ亼ⴀᲰ䙖Ƚђኧ㋴ᇼȽ咅啄᧝㛗Ƚↂቊ㛗ԳȽ≪Წݿ⭫Ƚ㬓ᙓ〇ᢶȽ䎑㞴㛗ԳȽঐՍ㋴ᐛㅿȾ ȇпᣎਖᢁᵰཝᡎ঩ሼᢉଃ ṯᦤ Counterpoint ResearchⲺᣛ઀ᱴ⽰θ2024ᒪжᆙᓜޞ⨹ᣎਖኅᲰ㜳ᢁᵰ࠰䍝䠅◶໔ 49%θ঄Ѱ俌⅗䎻䏀Ҽп᱕ᡆѰᆙᓜ࠰䍝䠅ߖߑȾ֏ᢵђ൞ӡ⮂ S9俌᢯䖜ѱӚ䖜Ԡᕅр䙅䵨঄Ѱпᣎਖ᯦ᵰਥ㜳Րӄ 9ᴾԳ൞ iPhone 16㌱ࡍਇᐹҁ੄ ਇ ᐹ Ⱦ Ֆ 丩 䘇 ᵕ ᇎ ᇙ ެ п ᣎ ਖ Ᾰ ᘫ ᢁ ᵰ Ă Ă Phantom Ultimate 2ȾᦤՖ丩ᇎᯯԁ㔃θ䘏ⅴ᯦ᵰ൞ᣎਖ⣬ᘷсθެ৐ᓜਥ㕟ࠅ㠩ӻ 1∡㊩θ⭫⊖ⴌ৐ᓜӻ 0.25∡㊩Ⱦኅᒋᯯ䶘䞃༽Ҽжඍ 6.48㤧ሮⲺѱᱴ⽰ኅθ൞ᇂޞኋᔶ੄θ޻䜞ᱴ⽰ኅਥᢟኋ㠩 10㤧ሮθ䟽⭞儎࠼䗞⦽Ⲻ 3K OLED䶘ᶵθ㓫⁠∊䗴ࡦ4:3θᨆב᧛䘇ᒩᶵ⭫㝇Ⲻ㿼㿿։僂Ⱦਜжᯯ䶘θп-30-20-10010(%)⭫ᆆ⋠␧30䇷࡮⹊ガᣛ઀ 㺂ѐ⹊ガ 䇷࡮⹊ガᣛ઀ 䈭䰻䈱ᴶ੄ж享䠃㾷ރ䍙༦᱄ 2 䈐ؗȽщѐȽどڛȽ儎᭾ ᱕ᰟ൞ 2021ᒪቧࡓ↛ኋ⽰ҼެпᣎਖᯯṾⲺᶺᜩχ㦙㘶൞ᢶᵥቸ䶘ҕᐨޭ༽᧞࠰пᣎਖᢁᵰⲺ㜳࣑Ⱦᣎਖᵰ㺂ѐ໔䮵䗻䙕θཪ䜞ᢁᵰস୼ᐨ㫺ࣵᖻਇθᔰ䇤ީ⌞ӝѐ䬴⴮ީԷѐφђ⶜㛗ԳȽ㋴⹊〇ᢶȽࠥⴑ〇ᢶȽ䮵ؗ〇ᢶȽᇒᆿ〇ᢶȽ〇ἤ〇ᢶȽᯥ䘠ށㅿȾ ȇ伄䲟ᨆ⽰ ঀሲ։࡬㻷ࣖ⸷θᲬ഼সᢟӝу਀人ᵕθ⹊ਇ䘑ኋу਀人ᵕθ൦㕎᭵⋱уどᇐθ᧞㦆ޢਮѐ㔟у਀人ᵕㅿ伄䲟Ⱦ 䠃⛯ީ⌞ޢਮ਀⳾࡟人⎁ ޢਮԙ⸷ ੃〦 2024- 0 8 - 30 㛗ԭ EPS PE ᣋ䍺䇺㓝 2023 2024E 2025E 2023 2024E 2025E 002241.SZ ↂቊ㛗Գ 21.24 0.32 0.75 1.01 66.38 28.32 21.03 Ҧޛ 002273.SZ ≪Წݿ⭫ 17.85 0.43 0.61 0.75 41.51 29.26 23.80 ໔ᤷ 002384.SZ ђኧ㋴ᇼ 23.79 1.15 1.25 1.74 15.82 18.98 13.65 ᵠ䇺㓝 002475.SZ ㄁䇥㋴ᇼ 39.42 1.53 1.88 2.26 25.76 20.97 17.44 ໔ᤷ 002600.SZ 亼ⴀᲰ䙖 8.38 0.29 0.3 0.42 23.1 27.8 19.96 ᵠ䇺㓝 002938.SZ 咅啄᧝㛗 35.80 1.42 1.72 2.16 25.21 20.81 16.57 Ҧޛ 300088.SZ 䮵ؗ〇ᢶ 5.47 0.25 0.31 0.38 21.88 17.65 14.39 ໔ᤷ 300433.SZ 㬓ᙓ〇ᢶ 17.57 0.61 0.79 1.04 21.77 22.3 16.85 ᵠ䇺㓝 300709.SZ ㋴⹊〇ᢶ 37.66 1.11 1.53 1.88 33.93 24.61 20.03 Ҧޛ 300806.SZ ᯥ䘠ށ 11.61 0.31 0.56 1.08 37.45 20.73 10.75 Ҧޛ 600114.SH ђ⶜㛗Գ 16.37 0.32 0.73 0.94 51.16 22.42 17.41 Ҧޛ 600552.SH ࠥⴑ〇ᢶ 13.41 0.11 0.22 0.32 117.47 60.38 42.12 ᵠ䇺㓝 603283.SH 䎑㞴㛗Գ 63.36 3.43 4.08 4.79 18.47 15.53 13.23 Ҧޛ 688097.SH ঐՍ㋴ᐛ 21.72 0.87 1.10 1.39 38.44 19.82 15.65 ᵠ䇺㓝 䍺ᯏᶛⓆφWindθ঄䪡䇷࡮⹊ガδ⌞φćᵠ䇺㓝Ĉ⳾࡟人⎁਌㠠нᗍж㠪人ᵕε 䇷࡮⹊ガᣛ઀ 䈭䰻䈱ᴶ੄ж享䠃㾷ރ䍙༦᱄ 3 䈐ؗȽщѐȽどڛȽ儎᭾ ↙ᮽⴤᖋ 1 Ƚ 㛗⾞㓺ਾ਀ެ਎ौ ....................................................................... 5 1.1Ƚ ᵢઞ䠃⛯᧞㦆਀᧞㦆㓺 ............................................................ 5 1.2Ƚ ⎭ཌ嗏ཪж㿾 .................................................................... 6 2 Ƚ ઞᓜ㺂᛻࠼᷆਀ኋᵑ ..................................................................... 8 2.1Ƚ ઞ⏞ᑻᧈ㺂 ......................................