固收年度策略：利率篇上半场债牛延续，下半场顺势而为

规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 1 华鑫证券·固收专题 证券研究报告·年度策略 华鑫证券 研究发展部 证券分析师： 吴笛 执业证书编号：S1050518070002 电话：021-54967707 邮箱：wudi@cfsc.com.cn 联系人： 池钟辉 Tel：021-54967801 E-mail：chizh@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 研究发展部 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路 750 号 邮编：200030 电话：（86 21）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 摘要：  货币依旧宽松，宽信用的关键在非标。货币政策传导不畅的主因是此轮金融监管误伤了具有实体融资功能的非标，监管边际修正是疏导银行间流动性堰塞湖的关键，目前针对银行表内的宽信用措施不足以修复过紧的信用环境。货币大概率维持宽松，汇率和中美利差等外部矛盾不是掣肘因素。  经济增长的困局。2019 年经济增长的压力也将不断突显。地产投资上半年大概率回落。制造业投资增长动力不足，或将趋稳，但对固定资产投资的支撑不及 2018 年。基建投资上半年的压力也很明显。社零口径的消费压力也值得关注。而 2019 年的出口方面可能会出现较大幅度的下滑。过去依靠房地产和地方政府债务等为主的短期刺激政策与长期高质量发展之间存在矛盾， 2019 年经济增长压力仍大，监管层采取何种力度和何种方式进行逆周期调控取决于监管层对于经济短期波动的容忍度。  外资将继续流入，但幅度或有所放缓。债市开放程度提高，纳入彭博巴克莱指数等因素致外资持续流入，但考虑中美利差和掉期点差等因素，今年流入或有所放缓。  2018 年至 2019 年，通胀不是主角。2018 年总需求疲软下，“滞涨”不攻自破。短期因素不具备持续性，长期来看需求疲软下通胀无忧。全球需求的放缓使得明年油价中枢大概率下移。石油价格中枢回落或引导明年非食品价格同比回落。2019 年通胀难以成为债市的干扰因素。  2019 年利率债市场展望。我们认为 2019 年上半年利率债到期收益率大概率仍将进一步下移。经济下行压力和货币政策维持宽松下，上半年利率债长端仍有投资机会，10 年国债到期时收益率大概率底部中枢在 2.8%左右。利率债下半年可能会出现调整。随着逆周期调节和宽信用政策的实施，下半年宏观经济或边际改善，政策博弈越来越突出，非标监管是否边际转松以及房地产调控政策是否有大的改变，宽信用以及以房地产为代表的融资需求是否明显回升，随着这些不确定性的因素增多，利率债市场可能会出现调整的风险。此外，我们认为 2019 年期限利差可能趋于收窄，择机做平曲线。  风险提示：房地产调控政策超预期、中美贸易摩擦超预期 2019 年 1 月 9 日 固收专题 固收年度策略：利率篇—上半场债牛延续，下半场顺势而为 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 固收专题·年度策略 目录 一、2018 年——利率债的大牛市 ............................................................................................................................3 二、货币政策的矛盾与破局 ....................................................................................................................................4 （一）宽货币与紧信用 ················································································································································ 4 （二）硬币的正反面——融资难与资产荒················································································································· 6 （三）信用修复还在路上 ············································································································································ 7 （四）货币政策预计维持宽松 ···································································································································· 9 三、经济增长的困局 .............................................................................................................................................. 10 （一）内需开始全面放缓 ·········································································································································· 11 （二）贸易战实际影响刚刚开始，外需已经透支 ··································································································· 19 （三）短期波动容忍度与长期经济增长动能 ··········································································································· 19 四、金融开放——外资成为重要力量 ................................................................................................................... 20 （一）债市开放加快，外资显著增持 ··············································