煤炭开采行业跟踪报告：需求处于低位，煤价弱势运行

Equity Research·Industry Research·Coal Mining Coal Mining Industry Research 1 / 6 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] Coal demand is sluggish and prices are weak Outperform (Maintain) Investment Thesis ◼ Industry updates: Thermal coal’s inventories are still rising and prices are falling WoW. The spot price of port thermal coal fell by 105 yuan/ton WoW to 765 yuan/ton. Supply: the average daily port inflows approximately decreased by 10.26% WoW to 1.8726 million tons. Demand: the average daily port inflows approximately decreased by 9.84% WoW to 1.7711 million tons. Inventory: power plant inventories remain at high levels. The average daily inventory of the four ports around the Bohai Sea increased by 2.63% WoW, still remaining at a high level in recent years. As the peak electricity consumption season approaches, we expect that the thermal coal demand will hold steady to stabilize prices. Coking coal prices could come under pressure in short-term. The ex-warehouse price of Shanxi-produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port this week was reported at 1800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Supply: the overall supply in the production area is stable, and imports remain at a high level. Demand: coking coal prices are under pressure because the production enthusiasm of downstream steel companies is weak due to the upcoming off-season and slim profit. However, considering the continuous strength of infrastructure investment under the future stable growth policy environment, the marginal improvement of steel demand in real estate, and the support of tight supply, the medium-term coking coal price is very likely to stabilize. ◼ Risks: Less-than-expected downstream demand, higher-than-expected supply, drastic prices fluctuation. [Table_PicQuote] Industry Performance [Table_Report] Related reports 《需求维持弱势，煤价承压震荡》 2023-05-28 《供需较为均衡，煤价震荡运行》 2023-05-21 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Li Chen(陈李) and Jingjing Guo (郭晶晶). [Table_Author] 2 August 2023 Research Analyst Raven Rui (852) 3982 3217 ruiraven@dwzq.com.hk 证券研究报告·行业研究·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪报告 2 / 6 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 需求处于低位，煤价弱势运行 增持（维持） 投资要点 ◼ 行业近况： 动力煤方面，库存仍在上行，价格环比下跌。 本周港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 105 元/吨，报收 765 元/吨。供给端，产地供应有所回落，本周日均港口调入量约 187.26 万吨，环比下降 10.26%。需求端，本周日均港口调出量约 177.11 万吨，环比下降 9.84%。库存端，电厂库存仍处于较高水平，港口方面，本周环渤海四港口日均库存继续上行，环比增加 2.63%，整体仍处于近年高位。预计随着用电旺季即将到来，预计后续动力煤需求仍有支撑，价格企稳运行。 炼焦煤方面，短期价格预计承压。 本周山西产主焦煤京唐港库提价格收报 1800 元/吨，环比上周持平。供给端，产地整体供应稳定，进口量维持较高水平。需求端，下游钢铁企业利润低迷，生产积极性较弱，铁水需求；且随着淡季到来，短期需求预期较为弱势，焦煤价格承压。不过考虑到未来稳增长政策环境下基建投资持续发力、房地产用钢需求边际改善，同时供给偏紧支撑下，中期焦煤价格预期企稳。 ◼ 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；保供力度强于预期，煤价大幅下跌。 [Table_PicQuote] 行业走势 [Table_Report] 相关研究 《需求维持弱势，煤价承压震荡》 2023-05-28 《供需较为均衡，煤价震荡运行》 2023-05-21 特此致谢东吴证券研究所对本报告专业研究和分析的支持，尤其感谢郭晶晶和陈李的指导。 [Table_Author] 2023 年 8 月 2 日 证券分析师 芮雯 (8