中国风力发电设备行业-势头将持续到2022年

FoundationMChina Wind Power EquipmentMomentum to continue into 2022We expect a more promising wind power installation outlook in China amid decarbonization efforts and more attractive return profiles for both onshore and offshore projects. We initiate on Ming Yang and Jinlei, each at OW. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.+= Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. February 8, 2022 09:01 PM GMTFoundationM2Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Eva HouEquity Analyst+852 2848-6964Eva.Hou@morganstanley.com Contributors Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Simon H.Y. Lee, CFAEquity Analyst+852 2848-1985Simon.Lee@morganstanley.comFoundationMMorgan Stanley Research3Momentum to continue into 2022What's new in our wind forecasts? We have raised our 2022-25 installation forecast to 51-62GW and our 2026-30 forecast to 68-87GW – offshore capacity additions of 7-12GW p.a., 2022-25, and up to 14-20GW p.a., 2026-30. Further, the Morgan Stanley Global Utilities team forecasts that global (including China) new wind instal-lation will increase to 131GW in 2025, and further to 186GW in 2030, versus 98GW in 2022. Offshore wind contribution to total installa-tion will increase to 22% (29GW) in 2025 and 25% (47GW) in 2030 versus 12% (12GW) in 2022, per our forecasts. Industry ViewChina Utilities | Asia PacificAttractiveFavorable market conditions for wind com-ponent players in 2022: We estimate that Titan, Jinlei and Riyue will report 22-35% earnings growth in 2022, on a mild increase in ASP, and onshore wind installation accel-eration in China, with ongoing market share gains, as well as soft-ening raw material costs. With the rising trend toward higher rated power wind turbines, we expect that demand for higher capacity key components, which will likely carry higher technology entry barriers, will also increase. We believe this trend will accelerate the market consolidation of key components.We expect a reshuffle of wind turbine OEMs: We expect wind tur-bine OEMs to experience gross margin pressure in 2022, stemming from ASP pressure from competition and a mild increase in key com-ponent procurement cost. We estimates that top players Ming Yang (MY) and Goldwind will achieve respective 21% and 6% earnings growth, thanks to wind farm disposal acceleration and >20% wind turbine generator (WT