UBS Economics-China Economic Comment _Another export growth acceleration, ...-119749113

ab14 January 2026Global ResearchChina Economic CommentAnother export growth acceleration, upside risk to our projectionAnother positive surprise from export growth Exports grew by 6.6% y/y in December, compared to the prior growth of 5.9% and surpassing the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 3.0%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, we estimate that export levels expanded by 1.5% over the month; as a result, export momentum (3m/3m%) accelerated further to the strongest level since July. Our current estimate suggests a slight moderation in real export growth to 8.2% from 10.3% y/y, as strength in technology export price growth amidst the upcycle is pushing up overall export price growth.A mild uptick in shipments to the US, other destinations were the source of strength Export levels to the US registered a mild expansion of 0.6% over the month on a seasonally adjusted basis, though the monthly shipment level remained at the low end of historical trends and was 28% below the first quarter monthly average. The tariff de-escalation in early November appears to have helped stabilize shipment levels; however, a strong rebound is still absent. In y/y terms, exports to the US contracted by 31% in December. Shipment levels to the EU, other Asian economies such as Korea and ASEAN, and African economies expanded further, supporting overall export level growth and y/y acceleration.Tech and auto exports took the lead Export growth of the tech basket accelerated to 19.8% y/y in December, marking the fastest growth in recent years, with further acceleration in electronic integrated circuit exports and upswings from shipment growth of computers and mobile phones y/y from contractions previously. While a low base contributed to these swings, we believe these strong numbers also benefited from the upswing in the global tech cycle. Our early estimate shows export volume of autos reached a new high (close to 1 million units per month) on a seasonally adjusted basis, pushing y/y growth of auto and parts exports to 38%, the highest in recent months. On the other hand, exports of consumer goods continued to weigh on overall exports, contracting 12% y/y in December.Much better than expected import growth as well Import growth accelerated to 5.7% y/y, well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus expectation of 0.7%. We observed positive swings across the major import categories. Import growth in the key commodities basket swung to 6.6% y/y growth from a 0.8% contraction in prior months. We noted that this upswing is attributable to a low statistical base, price impacts, as well as sequential import volume expansion. Our early estimate shows improvements in the underlying import volume trend of crude oil, iron ore, and copper ore. Import growth of IT components accelerated, consistent with the acceleration in IT export growth. Furthermore, imports of Automated Data Processing machines registered another acceleration in growth. Two consecutive periods of growth acceleration like