UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy _4Q25 Earnings Brief January 16_ Simonds-119793777

ab16 January 2026Global ResearchUS Equity Strategy4Q25 Earnings Brief: January 16So far Financials aggregate surprise is 5.4% or 4.7% at the median as beats continued yesterday (GS: 20.1%, MS: 9.7%, BLK: 7.8%). Current consensus estimates suggest only TECH+ and Materials are expected to outpace the S&P 500 while Discretionary ex-AMZN is looks to be a drag on 4Q earnings. 7.4% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported. 4Q expectations are for revenues to grow 7.3% and EPS 9.0%. Projected EPS growth among groups varies significantly, as shown below (a blend of consensus estimates and reported results where available): Expected EPS Growth YoY
TECH+: 21.7%
Financials: 8.9%
Non-Cyclicals: -1.1%
Cyclicals ex-Energy: -2.7%
Energy: -0.5%The 6 largest TECH+ companies are expected to outgrow the rest of the market as a group (EPS growth 22.4% vs. 4.4%), though forecasts vary for each company (MSFT: 22.7%, META: 2.2%, GOOG: 20.6%, NVDA: 69.3%, AAPL: 8.7%, AMZN: 9.8%).Earnings are beating estimates by 8.2% on aggregate so far, with 86% of companies topping projections to date. EPS is on pace for 12.6%, assuming the historical trend of estimate revisions through the end of reporting season.Over the next 5 trading days, 38 companies representing 6.7% of the S&P 500's market cap will report results, including State Street, Netflix, 3M, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, General Electric and Abbott Laboratories. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 17. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Equity StrategyAmericasSean SimondsStrategistsean.simonds@ubs.com+1-212-713 2851Maxwell Grinacoff, CFAStrategistmaxwell.grinacoff@ubs.com+1-212-713 3892Andrew GarthwaiteStrategistandrew.garthwaite@ubs.com+44-20-7567 4343Gerry FowlerStrategistgerry.fowler@ubs.com+44-20-7567 5490US Equity Strategy 16 January 2026ab 2US Equity StrategyUBS ResearchS&P 500Figure 1: S&P 500 EPS Growth 14.310.611.516.14Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25E%Current Consensus Forecast12.69.0Expected Final Reported GrowthSource: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Figure 2: S&P 500 EPS Growth - Impact from TECH+6.88.16.96.57.44Q241Q252Q253Q254Q25E%Source: Standard & Poor’s, Refinitiv, FactSet, UBS Note: Impact calculated as difference in EPS growth between S&P 500 and S&P 500 ex-TECH+Expected 4Q EPS Growth is now 12.6% YoY TECH+ has had an outsized impact on S&P 500 EPS growth over the past yearUS Equity Strategy 16 January 2026ab 3S&P 500 Figure 3: 4Q25 Earnings Dashboard – S&P 500Weighted Growth YoY (%)RevenueMarginsEarningsBuybacksEPSS&P 5007.30.88.10.99.0TECH+16.15.021.10.621.7Big